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What will cause SANSAR to fail

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Second Life has allowed a lot of things to take place that have caused many residents to leave the world. I cite, the trolls and griefing for example, the high tiers for another. What lessons should Linden Lab have learned from Second Life so that they are not repeated in SANSAR. What do you feel will sink SANSAR if not avoided in-world.

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28 minutes ago, JoeDex said:

What do you feel will sink SANSAR if not avoided in-world.

Sansar will fail if LL doesn't manage to define a niche for it. Right now it's actually not clear which users it is focused on.

Sansar will fail if they can't manage to add true interativity and action. People won't flock over just to watch some pretty scenes, there has to be something happening there.

Sansar will fail if they can't reduce the hardware requirements and open it up for other platforms than Windows. And I mean drastically reduce the requirements. It will never ever become the "Wordpress of VR" unless it can be easily accessed with a cheap Android tablet.

Sansar will fail to become the Wordpress of VR if the UI ends up as complicated as SL's. If your old granny can't figure it out in 15 minutes with no tutoring, it's a failure.

Sansar will fail if the experience owners can't manage to keep the polycount and pixel count down.

Sansar will fail if it can't attract far more attention outside the SL communities than it does today.

Sansar will fail if LL keeps overselling it.

Sansar will fail if they can't get the development done much, much, much, much, much faster than they've managed so far.

Edited by ChinRey
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49 minutes ago, Klytyna said:

The Death of Project Stupid, was ordained right back when it was first announced

I still think it has a chance. In fact, considering the reactions we have seen and what has happened so far this month, I think its odds have improved drastically. By now I may actually be willing to give it a two-digit percent chance of survival.

 

49 minutes ago, Klytyna said:

It will fail, when most of the potential customers (people with win pc's) simply cant run the damn thing because it's been optimised exclusively for "Leet power gamerz tech-illiterate cyber geeks online"

Linden Lab is clearly trying to both have their cake and eat it and that is a huge problem. The extensive focus on high end VR equipment is not compatible with the "Wordpress for VR" concept and unless they choose one or the other very soon, they're going to fall between two chairs.

 

Edited by ChinRey
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3 hours ago, ChinRey said:

Sansar will fail if the experience owners can't manage to keep the polycount and pixel count down.

I  still say that Cloud Party had the right idea with automatic "policing" in the system -- only so much texture download per (well let's call it "experience" too), only so many items (not many) that could be viewed from a long distance (mostly used on building and hills and such) etc etc. We still managed to do quite a bit and it ran in Chrome AND it was four years ago!  I can imagine the things I could do now that I know more :D. 

Still, with all that smart tech it couldn't find a niche -- mostly because there was no adult stuff at all and no way (except for a tiny bit of time) to take money out. Hence it closed with "my" money in its coffers. Still I had a great time there. 

I thought you list was fair and pretty correct even though I haven't been there. 

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"Second Life has allowed a lot of things to take place that have caused many residents to leave the world. I cite, the trolls and griefing for example"

Joe, I will have to disagree with you on that one. I think it was the inundation of uptight control freaks, drama addicts and paranoids, that seemed to be attracted to SL like bees on honey, that the trollers and griefers liked to troll and grief. I think it was their presence that majorly contributed to the relative lack of interest by the world population to Second Life. Of course the ridiculously high land costs were even a bigger factor. Linden Labs might not have been interested in making a buck from Sansar as any sort of high priority. I mean LL  is a private company and the owners motivations could have been any number of things outside of economic profit.

The "it's not Second Life" mantra is not helping matters either imho. I would say take what works in Second Life and other games for that matter,  and implement them. Imposing arbitrary restriction in Sansar is not a good idea.

Edited by Spica Inventor
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/me climbs aboard his Bully Pulpit. Run while you can ...

Throughout my professional career designing and developing software systems, I learned an important lesson. Projects that began with "We're going to build the absolute end-all, do-all thing .. and it's gonna be SO NEAT" always ended in massive craters in both time and expenditure. The problem is that in order to make an "end-all, do all" of anything, it has to be incredibly complex. Eventually the outside of the product .. the part where people touch and use it .. winds up with so many knobs and switches that mere mortals with only two hands and one brain dissolve into mouth-foaming fits. And then you have the problem that the actual spec has to keep growing because someone with authority decides that "do-all" means "it's gotta do this too."

IMO Sansar has from the beginning been a technology showcase of neat stuff with an "end-all, do-all" mandate and no specific audience or functionality. When asked specifically "What will it do?" the clue came from the answer "Just wait, you'll see, it'll be so neat!"

What will cause Sansar to fail? The decision from the BoD that "we've spent enough and it's not done yet .. so you are."

Facta est universa simplex

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think i gave up after my third or forth visit in the first two days for open beta ....

1st : .. well yes..looks not bad

2nd: .. nothing more to do than have a look?

3rd:  .. "created" ..or better entered "my" box with a basic "experience" where i could do 1st  and 2nd ...

4th: ... ehm.. didn't come yet

5th: .. i love SL even more

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I'm curious...does anyone posting on the SL forum have a VR headset? I just got mine a few days ago, and VR is mindblowing. I had no idea. No idea. It's beyond being more real...it's more real than real. Somehow one's mind is tricked and you believe you are actually in the environment.
2d paintings are beautiful, but imagine stepping inside that painting and actually feeling like you are there.
I have the touch controllers so items in some places can be manipulated, and these controllers (Oculus Rift ones) actually feel like your hands.

It's very intense, and I'm sticking to the grandma section at Oculus Home :) Meditation experiences, visual representations of songs, poems, and art. However I did go on a roller coaster while shooting asteroids - had to take an hour to recover from that.
Love the trip through the bottom of the Grand Canyon on a boat....beautiful and amazing.
So far no motion sickness though the roller coaster made me a bit dizzy.

Went into the Zen Garden @ Sansar. Awesome.

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18 minutes ago, Luna Bliss said:

So far no motion sickness though the roller coaster made me a bit dizzy.

That is a form of motion sickness, your inner ear tells your brain that your eyes are lying about moving along a roller coaster, your brain can't decide who to believe, inner ears or eyes and... motion sickness. Welcome to the Road to Vomit-Cam

As to your question...

20 minutes ago, Luna Bliss said:

does anyone posting on the SL forum have a VR headset?

If I had $600 or more to waste, I can think of far more entertaining things to waste it on than a Vomit-Cam Geek-Goggle, just to mess about in Project Stupid staring at bad 3D "Art"...
 

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19 minutes ago, Klytyna said:

That is a form of motion sickness, your inner ear tells your brain that your eyes are lying about moving along a roller coaster, your brain can't decide who to believe, inner ears or eyes and... motion sickness. Welcome to the Road to Vomit-Cam

That is one theory as to why some feel nausea in VR, however they don't know for sure the cause yet though there are many theories, and it could be different for different people.
I feel dizzy on roller coasters in RL too, as I would if I were to suddenly start moving at 200 mph. I've always loved roller coasters though despite that dizziness.

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21 minutes ago, Klytyna said:

If I had $600 or more to waste, I can think of far more entertaining things to waste it on than a Vomit-Cam Geek-Goggle, just to mess about in Project Stupid staring at bad 3D "Art"...

There's a summer sale going on for Oculus Rift...only $399 for the headset and touch controllers...an expensive toy for sure but one of the best I ever bought.
It's not bad 3D art at all...there are truly gifted artists creating some of these.

* There's a whole world of VR to explore, not just Sansar. Sansar is just getting started.

Edited by Luna Bliss
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On 8/22/2017 at 6:57 AM, Klytyna said:

Post removed

There is no battle between SL and Sansar, or between Sansar, Hifi, and SL -- I feel this is all in your mind. Some people like to remain more distanced in virtual simulations, and so I imagine VR will never appeal to them.
For me, I like both -- I feel no need to choose between SL or Sansar. They both have their strengths and weaknesses.

However I do think virtual simulation in general will gravitate toward VR in the future decades, or at least a big part of it will. And to the topic at hand, what will cause Sansar to fail (I prefer to say what COULD cause Sansar to fail), my view on it at this point is that it could be not enough people are ready for VR. It is mindblowing, and makes you question just what reality is.
Of course perceptual psychology, and the new physics, causes us to know reality is a simulation of sorts (our brain is constructing reality)...but VR kind of shoves that in your face...feeling it to be true is much different than simply knowing it intellectually.

Edited by Jagix Linden
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I put this on another thread yesterday or the day before but currently on the Sansar. com entry page they mention SHARING your mult-user experience for PC, Oculus rift and HTC Vive users. The "PC" is first. 

So perhaps they have figured out that they need to "regular folks" as well and will work on making things better for those that DON'T have VR gear.  That would certainly be wise IMHO as right now the available audience is very low. They had a plan and took a path (OK maybe a wandering path) and there aren't enough people that can follow them down the path right now. So paying attention to that after the less than stellar acceptance when the opened their doors to the public at large would be a smart thing. 

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From what I´ve seen so far the environment looks nice, but the avatars look like SL, not necessarily top of the notch SL, too. Plus it would be starting anew... I wouldn´t be willing to do that if I had VR given the amount I invested in SL in earlier years (yeah don´t give me that look I know I was stupid ... or paranoid ;P )

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1 hour ago, Luna Bliss said:

That is one theory as to why some feel nausea in VR, however they don't know for sure the cause yet though there are many theories

It's been known for more than 30 years that conflict between inner ear and eyes cause motion sickness, thats what motion sickness usually is, NASA figured this out in their 'Vomit Comet' training plane. People also had problems with iMax cinema when it came out, all those cool promotional Roller coaster movies, and inner ear said sat on comfy seat, eyes said falling to death, brain said WTH, stomach said "Huey Ralph Barf" I'd say "this isn't rocket science" but in fact it is... NASA say you are drinking the VR goggle makers Kool-Aid...

1 hour ago, Luna Bliss said:

There is no battle between SL and Sansar, or between Sansar, Hifi, and SL -- I feel this is all in your mind.

I feel you haven't been paying attention, Phil did his crowd-fund begging letter to the world, short pause, knee-jerk response from Ebbe, a response in which he was pictured holding an Occulus, blathered on about how VR would save everything, and stated that "sooner of later" somebody would make a product that killed off SL, and if any one was going to do that, it should be LL...

Ebbe's 2nd in command, back then also apparently stated publicly that HE thought Project Stupid would damage SL, due to the asset stripping of people moving over or preparing to move over to what they thought was going to be SL-2.

You seem to think VR is some amazing new thing invented in the last couple of years that's really really hella-kewl. It's not, it's been around a lot longer, and never took off because, most people do not want to pay through the nose for expensive hardware to run expensive software, just so they can spend the first 5 mins puking their guts up.

1 hour ago, Luna Bliss said:

my view on it at this point is that it could be not enough people are ready for VR. It is mindblowing, and makes you question just what reality is.

Meaningless VR-Kool-Aid pseudo-intellectual doubletalk. There's nothing particularly mind-blowing about VR, unless perhaps one has a very very tiny little mind that finds anything remotely techy 'mind blowing'.

We've known for 4 years that Project Stupid would be way behind schedule, way under spec in areas it's competitors would have dealt with first, and way over spec in areas that hinder success rather than helping it, setting the graphics bar too damn high means efectively blacklisting most of your potential customers because they can't or wont blow a grand or two on new hardware just to play a tedious beta release of a game called "stare at pretentious pseudo-art".
 

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1 hour ago, Klytyna said:

It's been known for more than 30 years that conflict between inner ear and eyes cause motion sickness, thats what motion sickness usually is, NASA figured this out in their 'Vomit Comet' training plane. People also had problems with iMax cinema when it came out

It includes what you describe, but it's more complex, and theories are evolving:
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality_sickness

1 hour ago, Klytyna said:

You seem to think VR is some amazing new thing invented in the last couple of years that's really really hella-kewl. It's not, it's been around a lot longer, and never took off because, most people do not want to pay through the nose for expensive hardware to run expensive software, just so they can spend the first 5 mins puking their guts up.

Of course VR has been around for ages, but the ability for people to experience it on a regular basis, as well as the ability to experience it in varied forms, as well as the upcoming ability for the common person to create it fairly easily..has NOT.
You are underestimating just how many people are into VR and how fast it's growing, and that the people who get nausea are in the minority now.

1 hour ago, Klytyna said:

We've known for 4 years that Project Stupid would be way behind schedule, way under spec in areas it's competitors would have dealt with first, and way over spec in areas that hinder success rather than helping it, setting the graphics bar too damn high means efectively blacklisting most of your potential customers because they can't or wont blow a grand or two on new hardware just to play a tedious beta release of a game called "stare at pretentious pseudo-art".

At the Oculus forum someone was demonstrating a PC that was under $700 bucks and would easily run VR, plus anyone today with a halfway decent PC & good internet connection can access it now. Add the 400 for the headset (or only 100 if you go for one of the other VR headsets), and you aren't talking about a lot of $. It's simply a myth that being able to access VR is too expensive.

Regarding Sansar being behind schedule and its competitors, I have yet to find a VR experience with the excellent qualities that Sansar already has (realistic graphics & sound, the ability for avatars to interact in VR space, a beginning system in place for creators to make money, and the ability for an unskilled person to easily create their own little world ..plus have a direct link to it).
A LOT is missing and in development, but they are actually ahead of all other places that contain these qualities (or don't) that I've discovered.

1 hour ago, Klytyna said:

There's nothing particularly mind-blowing about VR, unless perhaps one has a very very tiny little mind that finds anything remotely techy 'mind blowing'.

Says someone who doesn't have a VR headset...
I've yet to encounter anyone who has experienced it who did not find it mindblowing, but I'm sure they're out there - especially those who get motion-sickness easily, fear heights, or are just plain scared of how it tricks your mind into feeling like you're really there.

 

Edited by Luna Bliss

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1 hour ago, Chic Aeon said:

They had a plan and took a path (OK maybe a wandering path) and there aren't enough people that can follow them down the path right now. So paying attention to that after the less than stellar acceptance when the opened their doors to the public at large would be a smart thing. 

There are a lot of people "following them down the path" -- there are a lot of creators from SL in Sansar.

The less than stellar acceptance seems to be mostly from people who don't understand VR and/or think in binary terms (thinking they have to choose one virtual world over another).

I think most are building in non-VR mode. Some aspects seem to cater toward VR and others to non-VR, so not sure they are excluding those without VR capabilities.

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11 minutes ago, Luna Bliss said:

There are a lot of people "following them down the path" -- there are a lot of creators from SL in Sansar.

The less than stellar acceptance seems to be mostly from people who don't understand VR and/or think in binary terms (thinking they have to choose one virtual world over another).

I think most are building in non-VR mode. Some aspects seem to cater toward VR and others to non-VR, so not sure they are excluding those without VR capabilities.

What I am saying is that the expected VR to take off and have a bigger base during the three years they have been working on Sansar. That hasn't happened. It MAY happen; it may not. 

We all know that "if we build it, they will come" (this speaking of the experiences, not the platform) really doesn't work  --- well almost never LOL. As stated many times I have not been there due to my non-accepting nature concerning the Creators Terms, but I have read comments from tons of people who have been there and watched plenty of video footage. 

I wish Sansar well. I hope to visit after the creator's preview is over. I believe we can be in MANY platforms at the same time (and I have been).  I am simply saying that Linden Lab bet on something happening that didn't happen and that is going to hurt them. You can't be all things to all people, but when you narrow your focus you do increase your risk.  

 

 

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3 hours ago, Luna Bliss said:

That is one theory as to why some feel nausea in VR

That's not a theory. The effects of conflicting signals from balance organs and eyes have been well known centiruies and really, the basics of it are elementary school level biology. THe only plausible explanation why the Occulus Rift developer didn't know about it in advance, is thatt hey flunked biology at elementary school.

 

8 minutes ago, Chic Aeon said:

What I am saying is that the expected VR to take off and have a bigger base during the three years they have been working on Sansar. That hasn't happened. It MAY happen; it may not.

VR headsets may take off eventually but Rift and Vive will not. For those who know a little bit of history: VHS beat Betamax nad mp3 beat CDs. Next step: Google Cardboard beats Rift.

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One thing I haven't seen mentioned (fully) in this thread yet is .. "How much would you pay to engage in a Sansar Experience?"

In SL the costs to experience the virtual world are scattered around. Some pay to get Premium access, some pay for Land, some pay for items and accessories to improve their appearance or environment. But the costs come slow, money is paid out when available and the outcome is desired, but until payments are made there is a LOT to experience essentially for free.

If I understand the concept of Sansar properly, people will wind up having to buy "Admission Tickets" to specific Experiences. Yes there will be many that are free, most of them provided by LL itself or by other Developers as advertising/loss leaders. But the Developers will need to sell tickets in order to recoup their investment. Because said payment must come "up front", it will need to be low enough that people consider it almost throw-away money; probably something on the order of $0.50 or so.

But the evil demon Math comes into play. If you've spent a year developing an Experience with a team of two and using some expensive software, you are probably in the hole at least $100,000.00US. At 50 cents per visitor, you will need to attract 200,000 paying visitors to break even. And of course if it takes you a year to get those paying customers, you're now another $100 Grand in the hole.

You're going to have to jack up the entry price for tickets. So I ask again .. How much would you pay to visit a Sansar Experience?

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1 hour ago, Darrius Gothly said:

One thing I haven't seen mentioned (fully) in this thread yet is .. "How much would you pay to engage in a Sansar Experience?"

In SL the costs to experience the virtual world are scattered around. Some pay to get Premium access, some pay for Land, some pay for items and accessories to improve their appearance or environment. But the costs come slow, money is paid out when available and the outcome is desired, but until payments are made there is a LOT to experience essentially for free.

If I understand the concept of Sansar properly, people will wind up having to buy "Admission Tickets" to specific Experiences. Yes there will be many that are free, most of them provided by LL itself or by other Developers as advertising/loss leaders. But the Developers will need to sell tickets in order to recoup their investment. Because said payment must come "up front", it will need to be low enough that people consider it almost throw-away money; probably something on the order of $0.50 or so.

But the evil demon Math comes into play. If you've spent a year developing an Experience with a team of two and using some expensive software, you are probably in the hole at least $100,000.00US. At 50 cents per visitor, you will need to attract 200,000 paying visitors to break even. And of course if it takes you a year to get those paying customers, you're now another $100 Grand in the hole.

You're going to have to jack up the entry price for tickets. So I ask again .. How much would you pay to visit a Sansar Experience?

Well if things stick to the VR crowd then they have already shelled out some pretty big bucks (as much as some people's computer systems) to "play". Granted they get to play all over and likely money isn't an issue for them. So depending on how complex an experience might be, it could be equated to playing a computer adventure game. In fact, I always suspect that that has been at least a part of what TPTB hoped would happen. So another platform for games --- where you could KEEP your character and have multiple adventures "as yourself". For some folks that will likely work well. And for those already deep into gaming I imagine they would pay a sum equal to the games out there ; again if it was a complex experience -- and this is down the line in the future.

 

I think what has people confused and wondering is a bit like the opposite of what happens in SL. Folks come in thinking of SL as a game which it is not -- at least not in the way they expect. In Sansar folks from SL may be expecting it to be a "world" and instead it is many different worlds with perhaps different rules. It isn't contiguous -- even less so than islands in SL. The biggest issue now is that the world isn't interactive at all for PC folks. 

 

Some of you know that I just finished a sim build at LEA. It is not my first and likely won't be my last, but while I have built installations before with a storyline woven within, I have never built a "mystery". It is, in fact, a very (VERY) low tech game. People wander and find little steampunk characters, clicking on the books to get info on the story from the viewpoint of the character that lived in the area. Eventually they may have an idea what happened to the missing girl. They can then go to a designated spot and read HER story. 

I have to say that while I enjoyed the building very much and made a few giant Blender leaps along the way which had me smiling broadly (folks in Blender will get that part), the most notable thing for me in this build is how INVESTED folks are getting in "finding Sarah".  So that interactivity is a BIG part of what makes things work.  And for now it is missing in Sansar -- for PC folks.

 

This will likely change  but that's the way it is now and that seems to be the biggest comment from visitors. I agree that it seemed a bit too early to open, but I can also see that three years (much more than we were told in the beginning) is a long time in virtual land. The project was losing momentum in the public eye and THAT is very important and likely why Sansar opened softly when it did. Certainly an understandable decision.

 

What would "I" pay?  If I could play on a PC and/or VR gear gets more reasonable both monetarily and convenience wise then I would be willing to pay what a typical computer game costs -- relative to the time that experience would last.  But until VR gear gets cheaper and MUCH more compact (like swimming goggles and rings on fingers) I can't see myself caring. I could certainly be a target audience for CREATING, but even then it would be difficult IF the platform was aimed only at VR. A creator --- to see what others would see and adjust their build accordingly -- would need to be in VR at least part of the time for testing.

 

LOL. And it seems that I have pretty much talked myself out of enthusiasm here looking at the current abilities from MY point of view. Not my point when I started typing for sure.  I suspect that other will comment that there are tons of creators without VR gear making experiences. I and respect that. But for me, long before I came to SL, I have been in multimedia as well as art. And in both disciplines I TESTED a lot. I still do (so much testing). It is a part of how I work and I cannot see myself changing.

 

And Blender is LONG past baking :D. 

 

 

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The price of VR gear is still very high by normal standards. Yes, I agree, GaMeRz shell out the bux like they were water (or from Daddy's Platinum credit card) but having spent that much just getting the machinery installed, there seems to be a tendency to scrimp on the actual game purchases. You don't see those people spending $35-$75 on 20 games .. maybe only 3-5 games and the rest they either pirate or rent. I still don't have a good feeling about the economic model of Sansar. But I am also prepared to have my opinion adjusted when Sansar really starts to stand on all three legs.

But there is one other poison dart that I think we should consider. The "vomit comet" aspect of VR is an insurmountable issue for a large segment of the population. It's a basic feature of human physiology. However there is a computer aided visual technology that is still living on the fringes .. and few seem to talk about it much: Augmented Reality (AR).

AR Headsets and Glasses (Google Glass anyone?) are mostly transparent but have the ability to add digitally created images and information overlaid on the Real World. They eliminate the nausea-inducing vertigo of full-immersion VR but suffer from the inability to completely supplant the scene with CGI. Their main purpose IMO will be to hyper-ize the human mind, allowing us to accomplish much more in less time with fewer mistakes.

Pokemon Go! was a game that sort of opened the door on that type of experience. Personally I am becoming more and more convinced that VR will become the Betamax of computer generated content while AR will become the Blue-Ray technology.

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7 hours ago, Luna Bliss said:

Says someone who doesn't have a VR headset...
I've yet to encounter anyone who has experienced it who did not find it mindblowing,

I first experienced VR 28 years ago, on a professional custom built 4 player machine, on custom hardware, with headsets that used the same 'mini crt screen' technology that had been used 10 years earlier in the helmets of Apache AH-64 Helicopter gunships. Yes, the helmets were heavy, and tended to stick out quite a bit at the back to counterbalance the weight of the visor.

They were not 'imm ersive', you could clearly see your seat and limbs/torso in peripheral vision at the bottom of the visor, there was little VR sickness as a result. It certainly wasn't 'mind blowing'.

As I said having your mind blown by VR, is a sign of a very inadequate mind.
 

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