Concurrency dropping.

[Wildcat Furse]

'twitter glitter' or 'FB' seems both to be accepted by the masses as social communication platforms, where 'second life' as a platform is still struggling with its own reputation, yes it sounds cliché (blah blah) but it is still seen as a platform for 'virtual sex activities or a virtual lego world for adults' rather than a fantastic 3D development and communication tool. No doubt we all should thank the media who hyped it to pieces in 2007 and mainly focussed on highlighting the 'negative aspects of second life rather than on the positive ones'. To my opinion Lindenlabs had to launch massive marketing campaigns in 2007-2008 rather than to sit and wait in the corner for the media storm to lay down (maybe they have thought that the negative publicity would lead into P&L positivity...). Marketing and customer service never has been their strongest points!

Nevertheless I love the platform and the capabilities it offers, but I don't see second life further growing, a slow downwards trend would be rather normal ...

*meows*

edit : I also hate the name 'second life' ..... as a name for this platform!

[Meade Paravane]

---

SuezanneC Baskerville wrote:

It appears Second Life's number of  concurrent users is dropping. 

---

No fear, Sooz. The massive influx of corporate customers will turn it around.

[leliel Mirihi]

 

---

Jenni Darkwatch wrote:

The thing I want to point out is this... SL has very limited commercial value. Regardless of what fanboys say, it doesn't run well on a lot of cheap off-the-shelf hardware. It certainly doesn't run on the average business PC. Out of my employers' PC considerable, world-wide PC pool, maybe a handful of PCs will run it. That alone limits SLs use for any kind of commercial use.

---

SL doesn't run well on old cheap hardware. It'll run just fine on a brand new $300 machine, assuming you didn't get ripped off. A lot of stores sell 3+ years old hardware as new (HP I'm looking at you).

 

[Jenni Darkwatch]

My employer uses a fairly well-known business PC brand. The problem is the GPU - they have none worth mentioning. And yes, quite a few are older than 3 years. No reason to shell out money if all they need is spreadsheet, word processor and email. In fact, we're moving to web-only thin clients. Cheaper, last longer, cannot as easily be tampered with and they don't get malware.

Edit: And no, definitely NOT gonna spend $300 for a work PC Half of that - maybe.

[Void Singer]

oh noes, it's spring and warmer weather isn't trapping people indoors like snow and cold do, lets all panic

[leliel Mirihi]

 

---

Jenni Darkwatch wrote:

My employer uses a fairly well-known business PC brand. The problem is the GPU - they have none worth mentioning. And yes, quite a few are older than 3 years. No reason to shell out money if all they need is spreadsheet, word processor and email. 

---

The GPUs on modern low end machines are about 400% faster than the ones on 3+ years old machines. ^.^

---

 In fact, we're moving to web-only thin clients. Cheaper, last longer, cannot as easily be tampered with and they don't get malware.

---

I love how the world is moving back to mainframes and terminals. It's like we forgot what this whole personal computer revolution was about.

---

Edit: And no, definitely NOT gonna spend $300 for a work PC

Half of that - maybe.

---

I assume you're talking about bulk discounts for businesses because no home user could get anything made in the last 3 years for less than $250.

 

 

[Jenni Darkwatch]

 

The GPUs on modern low end machines are about 400% faster than the ones on 3+ years old machines. ^.^

Try running SL on an Intel G41 or a (still fairly common) Intel 828xx chipset.

 

The "personal computer revolution" was needed when servers weren't commodities. Today, a decent server can be had for $5k. These days, computers are security risks in businesses.

Even the business world is moving to mobile computing. Tablets have become halfway useful, and web apps can fill most ordinary business needs. In fact, our retail stores will soon not even have traditional cash registers anymore, and no "office" in back either. It's gotten to the point where either is unnecessary.

If SL wants to attract new users, it has to be useable on tablets and "smart"phones. To do so, they'd have to offer a codepath that my employer has managed to implement with two measly programmers and an external programmer for the phone/tablet side of things. Except that LL has neither the vision nor did it have the leadership for such a thing (during Kingdons clueless reign anyway). Remember the web-based "client"? Nice demonstration of just how unimaginative the people in charge are.

Here's a clue: Gaming PCs typically have the needed oomph to render and encode a live stream of the SL visuals and audio. Adding that to the current viewer is beyond trivial. Harness what's there, don't try to come up with yet more expenses. A concept that a good 99% of all "professionals" couldn't grasp even if it hit them in the face.

[Marianne McCann]

 

---

Void Singer wrote:

oh noes, it's spring and warmer weather isn't trapping people indoors like snow and cold do, lets all panic

---

 

This, at least in the short term. I am used to April/May and August/September being the "slow months," with better weather and "end of summer" travel being a bit part of 'em.

This isn't to say that the numbers  *have* dropped since '09, which I think there's a whole host of reasons for. FWIW, that we're not in worse shape speaks more to me.  

[PeterCanessa Oh]

---

Jenni Darkwatch wrote:

... These days, computers are security risks in businesses.

Even the business world is moving to mobile computing. ... my employer has managed to implement

---

So mobile devices, with unencrypted, wireless comms are LESS of a security risk, somehow?  They're carried to 'usafe' places, easier to lose and easier to intercept.

But I agree about a light-graphics version for all the toy computers out there that need something else to do their drawing and colouring-in.  You'll not be worrying about bandwidth caps or cost, of course?

[leliel Mirihi]

 

---

Jenni Darkwatch wrote:

 

Try running SL on an Intel G41 or a (still fairly common) Intel 828xx chipset.

---

 

The G41 (GMA X4500) is not that bad. And if you're still buying the 8-12 year old Pentium 3/4 era 828xx chipsets then you're getting raped hard core. Remember I said new and modern, like the G41 (c. 2008), not whatever decade old piece of junk you have lying around the office.

 

---

The "personal computer revolution" was needed when servers weren't commodities. Today, a decent server can be had for $5k. These days, computers are security risks in businesses.

Even the business world is moving to mobile computing. Tablets have become halfway useful, and web apps can fill most ordinary business needs. In fact, our retail stores will soon not even have traditional cash registers anymore, and no "office" in back either. It's gotten to the point where either is unnecessary.

---

Yeah except that mobile devices and tablets are personal computers with their own OS and applications that have just as many bugs as their desktop counterparts. Terminals were called dumb for a reason, all they understood was plain text.

 

[Void Singer]

 

---

Jenni Darkwatch wrote:

LL could easily have made SL accessible via cellphones. It's trivial to do, yet no one there seems to see beyond the walls of their crystal palace.

---

 

this one statement puzzles me more than any other.... how exactly would SL be feasibly available from a cellphone?

nevermind for the moment the limitations of content to screen size, I'm going to assume you mean cloud rending of scenes, which means massive live video bandwith use, and forget about the inherent delay time to render and send, plus the cost associated with that much wireless phone usage, or the fact that the jitter on most wireless signals and overall stability is not really  reliable.

and for what? a low rez grainy image or a "live" virtual world that you are constantly lagging behind, all at ridiculous service and bandwith costs? that was a pipe dream even before they tried it with the "interest" beta.

 

not every product is suited for the general market or to every particular directed purpose.... it's often better to target a core market, even a niche one, and then flexible enough to take in closely related markets...

[Jenni Darkwatch]

 

---

leliel Mirihi wrote: 

The G41 (GMA X4500) is not that bad. And if you're still buying the 8-12 year old Pentium 3/4 era 828xx chipsets then you're getting raped hard core. Remember I said new and modern, like the G41 (c. 2008), not whatever decade old piece of junk you have lying around the office.

 

---

Why on earth would I blow money on "modern" hardware when decade old "pieces of junk" work just as well to get the job done? In an office environment there's rarely any need for anything fancy. As long as everything loads fast and is responsive, that's good enough.

 

[Jenni Darkwatch]

 

---

leliel Mirihi wrote:

Yeah except that mobile devices and tablets are personal computers with their own OS and applications that have just as many bugs as their desktop counterparts. Terminals were called dumb for a reason, all they understood was plain text.

---

Terminals aren't text anymore. What bugs they have is, for me, irrelevant. All I need them for is a remote desktop session (not the Windows TS kind) and/or a web browser. In most cases, web browser is sufficient.

 

[leliel Mirihi]

 

The phrases decade old, fast and responsive, and web browser don't belong in the same sentence. Two hundred dollars will buy you a 4 year Core 2 duo that's 6 times faster than the fastest Pentium 4 Intel ever released. Just imagine what the latest and greatest can do.

 

[Jenni Darkwatch]

 

---

Void Singer wrote:

 

---

Jenni Darkwatch wrote:

LL could easily have made SL accessible via cellphones. It's trivial to do, yet no one there seems to see beyond the walls of their crystal palace.

---

 

this one statement puzzles me more than any other.... how exactly would SL be feasibly available from a cellphone?

nevermind for the moment the limitations of content to screen size, I'm going to assume you mean cloud rending of scenes, which means massive live video bandwith use, and forget about the inherent delay time to render and send, plus the cost associated with that much wireless phone usage, or the fact that the jitter on most wireless signals and overall stability is not really  reliable.

and for what? a low rez grainy image or a "live" virtual world that you are constantly lagging behind, all at ridiculous service and bandwith costs? that was a pipe dream even before they tried it with the "interest" beta.

 

not every product is suited for the general market or to every particular directed purpose.... it's often better to target a core market, even a niche one, and then flexible enough to take in closely related markets...

---

 

Smartphone was of course what I meant, and even there, more the tablet hybrids. Sorry, not a native speaker here. Cloud rendering is an interesting concept, but that wasn't even remotely what I meant. SL on the go isn't what I am really talking about either, though I'm guessing some people would find that appealing too... while driving their car into a crowd of people. For smartphones I feel augmented reality makes much more sense than virtual reality though.

The way I see it, more and more people will use relatively low-power "portable" computers. Tablets most likely, considering their popularity. They have decent sized screens but not the oomph to run something like SL without draining the batteries in the time it takes to log in. On the other hand, many have built-in video stream decoding, as used for example by Netflix for streaming vids to iPhone and iPad. So the bandwidth is obviously there. The bandwidth costs... that's an issue of course, but likely less than one would think, especially if programmed right. There's quite a few techniques to limit bandwidth in such environments. Scale the image dynamically according to screen size. Lower the streams FPS if nothing much changes on-screen. If a user wishes to, turn off the visuals and go to text/voice chat only... simple things.

Why bother though? SL has, it seems, reached the ceiling. Trying to expand into new markets and become a pioneer is something LL does neither have the vision for, nor would the current user base appreciate it. After all there's still people who honestly think SL was better in '03.

[leliel Mirihi]

 

---

Jenni Darkwatch wrote:

Terminals aren't text anymore. What bugs they have is, for me, irrelevant.

---

How do you think the malware gets onto your system? It's not like Microsoft puts a handy little short cut on the desktop labeled "Malware click here to pwn the system".

[Jenni Darkwatch]

 

---

leliel Mirihi wrote:

 

The phrases decade old, fast and responsive, and web browser don't belong in the same sentence. Two hundred dollars will buy you a 4 year Core 2 duo that's 6 times faster than the fastest Pentium 4 Intel ever released. Just imagine what the latest and greatest can do.

 

---

So you'll buy new PCs just because they're newer? Grand. Remind me never to hire you, it's be very bad for the bottom line.

 

[Jenni Darkwatch]

 

---

leliel Mirihi wrote:

How do you think the malware gets onto your system? It's not like Microsoft puts a handy little short cut on the desktop labeled "Malware click here to pwn the system".

---

Actually... for most malware, that's exactly how it gets on the system. Users clicking on email attachments or on lovely webpage ads/popups. Malware that actually uses OS exploits is what corporate firewalls are for. With portable devices it gets a bit more complicated, but really not by too much. There's plenty of documentation out there to explain how that's done, no need for me to go into details.

 

[leliel Mirihi]

 

---

Jenni Darkwatch wrote:

 

So you'll buy new PCs just because they're newer? Grand. Remind me never to hire you, it's be very bad for the bottom line.

---

Right, because nobody buys a new computer because it's faster. Lamest argument ever.

 

---

Actually... for most malware, that's exactly how it gets on the system. Users clicking on email attachments or on lovely webpage ads/popups. Malware that actually uses OS exploits is what corporate firewalls are for. With portable devices it gets a bit more complicated, but really not by too much. There's plenty of documentation out there to explain how that's done, no need for me to go into details.

 

---

Actually...not. Users clicking on a hand crafted email attachment that exploits a bug in Word/Excel/Acrobat then it exploits a bug in windows to escalate itself to system level. Web sites that do fly by infections, no clicking required, and exploit a bug in the browser/plugin, then escalates itself to system level through a windows bug. You're about a decade behind on your malware knowledge. Funny how that word decade keeps popping up.

[Jenni Darkwatch]

 

---

leliel Mirihi wrote:

Right, because nobody buys a new computer because it's faster. Lamest argument ever.

---

 

For work, PCs should be bought when there is a need, not to fulfill someones fancy. What you do on your private dime is of course up to you.

 

---

---

Actually... for most malware, that's exactly how it gets on the system. Users clicking on email attachments or on lovely webpage ads/popups. Malware that actually uses OS exploits is what corporate firewalls are for. With portable devices it gets a bit more complicated, but really not by too much. There's plenty of documentation out there to explain how that's done, no need for me to go into details.

---

Actually...not. Users clicking on a hand crafted email attachment that exploits a bug in Word/Excel/Acrobat then it exploits a bug in windows to escalate itself to system level. Web sites that do fly by infections, no clicking required, and exploit a bug in the browser/plugin, then escalates itself to system level through a windows bug. You're about a decade behind on your malware knowledge. Funny how that word decade keeps popping up.

---

Exactly what I said. Users clicking on BS they shouldn't click on. But even so - if such a click infects a work PC, fire the employee, then fire whoever is responsible for your IT security.

 

[leliel Mirihi]

 

---

Jenni Darkwatch wrote:

 

For work, PCs should be bought when there is a need, not to fulfill someones fancy. What you do on your private dime is of course up to you.

---

I would consider "Business app A runs 6 times faster so the employee spends less time sitting around doing nothing on the company's time waiting for the machine to catch up" to be a valid reason to upgrade. Keep in mind we're talking about going from a c. 2003 machine to a c. 2008 machine in 2011. I would call that a reasonable upgrade cycle. But who knows, maybe in your shop you just run a bunch of 30 year old DOS programs so an i386  is all you really need. Whatever, we're not going to agree on this one so lets just drop it.

 

[Dillon Levenque]

---

Ishtara Rothschild wrote:

But there still are a few hardcore fans and cheerleaders who believe that SL is destined to become the shiny new 3D internet and

AXE deodorant can really get you laid,

and anyone who says different is a hater.

---

What? It can't?

Sorry, that was such a good line I had to comment (I've never heard of Axe Deodorant, actually).

I can't see how SL can be 'ported' to mobile. Unless maybe we're finally gonna get Virtual Reality—remember Virtual Reality? Then we can just slip on the helmet and plug it into the phone and go. I think not. I also think Ishtara is correct; SL will eventually fade away. Not because the concept is outdated, but because there will be better ways to do what it does. When those ways exist, I'll be watching. For now, I'm right where I want to be.

ETA: that's twice that's happened to me; I thought I got all the cutoff lines in the right place but I see my post looks like it's part of Ishtara's.  For anyone who cares, my content starts with the line 'What? It can't"'

[Void Singer]

 

---

Jenni Darkwatch wrote:

 

Smartphone was of course what I meant, and even there, more the tablet hybrids. Sorry, not a native speaker here. Cloud rendering is an interesting concept, but that wasn't even remotely what I meant. SL on the go isn't what I am really talking about either, though I'm guessing some people would find that appealing too... while driving their car into a crowd of people. For smartphones I feel augmented reality makes much more sense than virtual reality though.

The way I see it, more and more people will use relatively low-power "portable" computers. Tablets most likely, considering their popularity. They have decent sized screens but not the oomph to run something like SL without draining the batteries in the time it takes to log in. On the other hand, many have built-in video stream decoding, as used for example by Netflix for streaming vids to iPhone and iPad. So the bandwidth is obviously there. The bandwidth costs... that's an issue of course, but likely less than one would think, especially if programmed right. There's quite a few techniques to limit bandwidth in such environments. Scale the image dynamically according to screen size. Lower the streams FPS if nothing much changes on-screen. If a user wishes to, turn off the visuals and go to text/voice chat only... simple things.

---

well somthing has to render the content, since it's dynamic and not static, so for low powered devices, that would have to be cloud rendering of some sort. (which will need to be paid for by someone) and while they may be able to handle a yuotube video of a few minutes, anything more is going to cost in bandwidth (more cash), as well as power consumption (tech limitation for mobile computing)... and still be squeezed into a relatively small space...

 

I think anyone trying to queeze SL's dynamic world into that sort of microsm just isn't realizing that that it doesn't work like that... certain content and paradigms require certain resources, and mobile tech just doesn't have it yet. and trying to cram SL into that tiny add living in clip paradigm will never work.... it can't handle the level of dynamicism involved.

PS
fire every employee that gets hit with malware... seriously? well now we know how a hacker could both shut down any company you are running, and cherry pick head hunt your best people while they're at it....

[Darrius Gothly]

 

---

Void Singer wrote:

PS

fire every employee that gets hit with malware... seriously? well now we know how a hacker could both shut down any company you are running, and cherry pick head hunt your best people while they're at it....

---

 

RL Anecdote time. I was sitting at one of our major client's offices, going over the last edit pass on their personalized version of our manual .. when the cube across the hall erupted in epithets. The sound of a stapler landing on padded cubicle walls was followed by three other cubes also exuding foul language .. and a very impressive volcano of papers.

As each minute ticked by, more and more cubes either joined the blue speech torrent, or simply gave birth to the ostrich head maneuver .. and a slump-shouldered occupant making their way slowly to the break room.

The writer I was sitting with, having caught on to the tsunami of destruction, was busy saving all the open documents he could before .. 

*click* Down went his machine. He got all but one saved .. and that one was just a couple of easy to remember spelling faux pas to recover.

As we all gathered for an impromptu bull session, in walked the division boss .. not the local department boss .. the big man DIVISION boss. After the instant but hushed sound of unanimous butt-pucker subsided .. his voice was easily heard over the fading din. "Yeah, it was an email my wife sent me...."

Anyone wanna hire an entire 100+ person division of EX employees?

[Gavin Hird]

 

---

Jenni Darkwatch wrote:

Phillip Rosedale often likened SL to the next evolution for the Internet. He missed a lot of key points: The Internet is going mobile, and turning to augmented reality, not virtual reality. LL could easily have made SL accessible via cellphones. It's trivial to do, yet no one there seems to see beyond the walls of their crystal palace. That might have broadened the appeal, but I doubt it. It'd only delay the demise.

---

 

You are spot on!

As I have pointed out many times both in the forums and blogs, SecondLife needs to get relevant in the mobile space – fast – to grow or even keep existing levels of users. They say it can't be done, but if you look at the Bluemars client for iPhone/Ipad, they keep chipping at it and developing an entry into their world that that appeals to the mobile crowd. 

There are a few competitors to SL on the horizon, but their appeal is limited as it currently is more of the same – just at a lower cost (at least for land holders). 

What kills the concurrency and recruitment is the lack of the  "OMG – you can do that!!" moments that many of us had earlier, and that met us more or less at the gate (sans the griefers that are still there.) What has been chipping away at this are all the restrictions and segregation being imposed on the community (mentioned earlier in the thread.) All in the name of protecting Linden lab from litigation as per Californian law. Unfortunately this makes for uniformity that is gravitating to Disney Dull™

In addition to going mobile, to stay relevant, Linden Lab needs to license their server code to 3rd parties that can form alternative girds hosted in different geos and under different legislation. This, while at the same time provide roaming inventories and hyper girding to existing users.  Only then can there be a return to true diversity and innovation.  This development will happen regardless, only slower as competitors and open source server offerings currently are in catch up mode in terms of technological capabilities.