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Callum Meriman

Lindex - Interesting moves over Christmas.

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Over Christmas, with the increased spending of residents we saw limit sell on the Lindex push back from 260 to 250.

With this it looks to me like we have proof we did move to a floating currency, without lab putting artificial brakes on it. Well, that's to my inexperienced eyes at least.

It will be interesting what happens as the next batch of people's tiers comes due. Will we hold the line at a sell of 250 or will people's need to cash-out urgently to pay tier push the rates back to a sell of 257 or worse?

 

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It's a very pleasant surprise. Why it went up and has now come down, we will never know.

Increased spending at christmas? There are many merchants who experience a drop in sales around this time of year. I am one. I've always thought that people are concentrating on RL spending and real lives.

With the LindeX at 250 (and the new daily sell restrictions) I changed my selling routine. I've been selling smaller volumes more often (without cashing out to Paypal). I would be thinking many other sellers would be doing the same - get in while it's good just in case it goes back up again.

Many people would argue that we have always had a floating rate, but I don't think so. This market does not behave like a normal market. Remember that almost all buyers are passive - they buy at market. Therefore they don't have an influence on price, but will buy at whatever the market rate is.

Anyway, let's see what happens next. It is very interesting.

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I'm still all for the conspiracy theory. I agree that this market doesn't behave like a normal market. I think the massive and quick drop has something to do with end of the year. Maybe somebody somewhere needs to do some last minute straightening of their statistic figures for the year 2016...

Anyway, most likely we will never know. I'm just glad all my 6 month old selling orders came through after all.

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Watching lindex dayly and yes, push back started after Lindens announced new trading limits. Next hour after announce - immediately. So it is kinda proof there was some fraud. But they needed 6 months to investigate it? I dont believe. Anyway i fill myself fooled. I lost enough on overpriced exchanges recently. Lol yes, i was that one, who was waiting for months and lost faith and exchanged for 260. Next day Lindens made new limits yay.

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Yep that was quite an expensive experience, very glad the exchange rates is back where it was, I still have no clue what caused such a dramatic change.

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Everything from 249 up to 254 has "grew" there in a matter of just a couple of hours... Does this still qualify as "normal market behaviour"?

So glad i dumped everything i had at 246.....

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I don't know what it means or what impact it would have, but a technical failure could explain it.

It really surprises me that there are still some people who cling to that sim buy down theory.

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It is rather interesting that while companies were on holiday the market adjusted back to the rate it had been stable at for so long.

Then today, when companies return from holidays, between 8am PST and 11am PST a total of Linden $ 33,000,000 (average of about 131,000 USD)  was pushed into the market for sale at staggered rates.  

Even more unusual, at some point higher rates sales were put in (which were losing the seller money).  

Even when only 3,200 Linden $ was for sale at 253, suddenly 4.7M Linden $ appeared for sale at 254.   This makes little sense, even if a desparate land baron was trying to offload to make tier, - they would only have had to wait minutes/less than an hour based on volume being traded to have their order filled at a lower rate.

Now we no longer have the buy-down, it's very interesting on just how these staggered amounts are happening and how they impact the rates.

 

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Its very discouraging to see this reversal. The Linden devaluation wiped out the benefit I got from buying down tier on four sims. I thought finally I would be seeing that extra $400 dollars but no. The tier reduction only offset the Linden devaluation.

Coincidence that we got this buy down offer and then saw the benefit wiped out? 

This is not normal currency exchange behavior.

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If the market could move so wildly because some sellers are back from holidays then we would be seeing these fluctuations more often for other reasons through the year, for instance Increased spending around Halloween or season change spending or end of month selling etc., but we had a very steady 260 - 261 for months. Going back further, we had a flat rate for 4 years. There has never been this type of seasonal fluctuation before. 

Now if LL are no longer controlling the market (and were previously) then all through last year we should have had upswings and downswings if the market is so very sensitive to change in sell and buy patterns. It doesn't figure.

But the selling activity - it does look like someone(s) could be intentionally pushing the L$ value back down again.

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Has there been any information about this? I've seen that exchange rate has been stable for a long time, something started happening recently, but now it's pretty bad. Over last 2-3 days the amount of lindens to cash out that would give me $2000 few days ago, right now is equal to around $1850 and keeps dropping constantly, so I had to put a sell order because it seems to get worse even over a few minutes and didn't get any better. Not too happy.

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I dont know, maybe somebody noticed this too, but look at Buy Orders side. There is very small quantity of requests to buy lindens. Recently it was about 60 millions and now? As something holds buyers to place their orders. Maybe it is large linden resellers keep market on this point? And yes, i also see very strange behavior which has no sence - setting Sell order 500 000 for 255, next second 500 000 for 256, next - for 257. It is really weird, especially if you are experienced company and know market - you know it takes less than hour to sell 500 000. I feel myself powned...

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In fact, money cant appear from nowhere. In summer we watched over 400 millions lindens in Sell orders, though before usually there was about 100. And there is question, what this money? Market creates itself by demand and offer. If there is 300 mln to sell - there was 300 mln to buy. But if it would happen suddenly - we would see linden getting points same way as it lost points by selling 300 mln over usual quantity. If landlords suddenly desided to change lindens to dollars then their customers needed to buy thiese lindens. If some veryvery successful creator with buisiness - his customers must buy lindens before too. So... think yourself who and how could create such a big crash and keeps holding this line.

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Situation now is really STUPID. I laugh watching lindex. Somebody puts lot of efforts to unstable linden they even miss points placing sums over and over! For now there is nothing on 259, but 2 mln on 261! Crazy to participate there now. I let speculators play with themselves. I hope others will do so too.

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The problem with the "Christmas" theory is that the great 10 point increase in value (or drop) came *after* Christmas in the days before New Year's, in fact. That is, most people would have done their shopping by then.

Naturally, I wonder if this is related in some way:

http://www.tomshardware.com/news/sansar-video-footage-monetization-system,33300.html

That is, the knowledge of the Sansar currency market would have likely preceded the publication Jan. 4 for those 500 lucky few who are in Sansar. 

If the theory is that the Sansar dollar will make the Linden dollar devalue (even if they are not convertible, a black market will quickly arise, of course), there might be some who would think now is the time to buy and hold Linden dollars perhaps (although I would think the theory might be the opposite, sell to get rid of before they devalue further).

 

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What is this money?

It could well be Supply Linden, which is the Lindens' system for keeping the cash low in cost -- they sell their own Lindens or "print cash" which then lowers the value.

 

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Prokofy Neva wrote:

The problem with the "Christmas" theory is that the great 10 point increase in value (or drop) came *after* Christmas in the days before New Year's, in fact. That is, most people would have done their shopping by then.
 

The Linden value started changing from its long-time plateau before Christmas - there were standing sell-orders in the 250's to burn through. Also, after-Christmas Lindens could have been bought with real-world Christmas money.

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Well i could believe in printing but it has temporary effect usually - if huge drop of money on market - and in some time market stops on some middle point eating printed money. I could also believe in closing old account, for example. But. If you take time and watch lindex during the day you see - at some time somebody starts playing with rate. Usually it is 500 k ( i think because there is limit 2000 usd to sell dayly). They put sums over and over and you see small quantities of lindens on every rate. It is unusual behavior for sl merchants. Years and years they didnt act this way. What is the sense to grow up rate arificially? I think it is some kind of fraud. And in the summer it worked because merchants were shocked and followed panic. Now they dont follow mostly and scheme works bad. But why LL doesnt stop this **bleep** - i wonder.

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