Will Sansar replace Second Life ?

[Vivienne Schell]

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Alwin Alcott wrote:

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Vivienne Schell wrote:

and about the 99 percent majority of stone aged, anti-progress, reactionary, stupid and not yet born ignorant creeps who refuse to buy the 980 GTX

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/me blinks....you say what?

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I say that Linden Lab, in order to make their overwhelmingly stunning next generation VR experiance a success, will be forced to overcome the audience´s reactionary, stupid, anti-progress ignorance - manifested by 99 percent mainstream and minor cumputer system sales - by providing free goggles and free 980 GTX hi-end systems for the 99 percent PC users world wide!!. Compaq for Sansar! Compaq for Sansar!!

/me waves her fist and the Sansar flag

[Phil Deakins]

There's a thread about "Daft Folk You Know". Enter yourself in it. You have a very good chance of winning.

[Amethyst Jetaime]

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Vivienne Schell wrote:

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Alwin Alcott wrote:

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Vivienne Schell wrote:

and about the 99 percent majority of stone aged, anti-progress, reactionary, stupid and not yet born ignorant creeps who refuse to buy the 980 GTX

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/me blinks....you say what?

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I say that Linden Lab, in order to make their overwhelmingly stunning next generation VR experiance a success, will be forced to overcome the audience´s reactionary, stupid, anti-progress ignorance - manifested by 99 percent mainstream and minor cumputer system sales - by providing free goggles and free 980 GTX hi-end systems for the 99 percent PC users world wide!!. Compaq for Sansar! Compaq for Sansar!!

/me waves her fist and the Sansar flag

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You're crazy.  That will never happen. First, Sansar will work without VR headsets.  Second many people get vertigo using VR headsets.

[wherorangi]

jejjejeje (:

you are sooo naughty (:

[THEGOATOFMENDES]

Forum regulars will laugh at you or get angry for asking this but the truth is - if Sansar is successful, of COURSE it will replace SL

Sansar is meant to be a next gen, high end evolved concept - why bother with it if it isn't better than SL?

LL wont admit it but any business with a great and a mediocre product will dump the mediocre one sooner rather than later

Of course they won't say they're going to ditch SL before the new product's out...do you think they want to commit commercial suicide?

The only way SL will continue beyond 2018 is if Sansar fails...and that's debatable. So many companies are getting involved in VR now that Sansar will have to be VERY strong to beat off the competition. A lot of developments until 2020 could render SL redundant.

 

It's just the way technology works. Things change, old tech becomes obsolete, ditch it and move on...

[THEGOATOFMENDES]

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Amethyst Jetaime wrote:

The LL CEO himself has said many times in interviews and on this forum that SL will not close down unless it no longer is profitable.

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He actually has said no such thing, which is why you cannot provide a link

[wherorangi]

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THEGOATOFMENDES wrote:

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Amethyst Jetaime wrote:

The LL CEO himself has said many times in interviews and on this forum that SL will not close down unless it no longer is profitable.

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He actually has said no such thing, which is why you cannot provide a link

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He actually did say such a thing

https://community.secondlife.com/t5/General-Discussion-Forum/My-Opinion-About-The-Next-Generation-Platform/m-p/2951820#M212502

if do want to know else he said then search for Ebbe Linden in Users category 

[Amethyst Jetaime]

He's said it in numerous interviews which you can google

Here's one link in this forum:

When he first let slip that LL was building a new virtual world he sent a statement to Jo Yardley a SL blogger.  In this statement that Jo Yardley received from him he said:

"Does this mean we’re giving up on Second Life? Absolutely not. It is thanks to the Second Life community that our virtual world today is without question the best there is, and after 11 years we certainly have no intention of abandoning our users nor the virtual world they continually fill with their astounding creativity. Second Life has many years ahead of it, and in addition to improvements and new developments specifically for Second Life, we think that much of the work we do for the next generation project will also be beneficial for Second Life."

He's also said it many times in posts he's made on this forum.  You can see all his posts here and search them yourself. 

Since you are new here, maybe before you make ignorant statements you should do a bit of research first. 

[Derek Torvalar]

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THEGOATOFMENDES wrote:

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Amethyst Jetaime wrote:

The LL CEO himself has said many times in interviews and on this forum that SL will not close down unless it no longer is profitable.

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He actually has said no such thing, which is why you cannot provide a link

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June 23 2014 Ebbe said this:

 

"If all users move rather quickly from SL to our next gen then I assume things went very well. If few are, then I think we'd have more work to do and SL will keep on tickin until only the new one makes sense to operate..."

(emphasis added)

https://community.secondlife.com/t5/General-Discussion-Forum/What-idiot-in-Linden-announced-SL-is-closing-down/m-p/2768110#M187482

The original post is here:

https://community.secondlife.com/t5/General-Discussion-Forum/Linden-Lab-is-building-a-NEW-virtual-world/td-p/2753476/page/20

[Kelli May]

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THEGOATOFMENDES wrote:

Forum regulars will laugh at you or get angry for asking this but the truth is - if Sansar is successful, of COURSE it will replace SL

Sansar is meant to be a next gen, high end evolved concept - why bother with it if it isn't better than SL?

LL wont admit it but any business with a great and a mediocre product will dump the mediocre one sooner rather than later

Of course they won't say they're going to ditch SL before the new product's out...do you think they want to commit commercial suicide?

The only way SL will continue beyond 2018 is if Sansar fails...and that's debatable. So many companies are getting involved in VR now that Sansar will have to be VERY strong to beat off the competition. A lot of developments until 2020 could render SL redundant.

 

It's just the way technology works. Things change, old tech becomes obsolete, ditch it and move on...

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Here's the way business works. If a product remains profitable, you keep it running. Commercial suicide is to ditch something that's making money.

There are times when you might not. If, for example, you believe one of your products is stealing customers from a different, more profitable product. Or you believe one product's reputation is killing a more profitable product. That's when SL might be closed in favour of Sansar. But generally, no. If you have two products that make you money, you don't kill one off just because the other is newer.

[Prokofy Neva]

Many theoretical statements have been made about this by fanboyz, and many corporate statements have been made about this by Linden Lab, both of whom claim that no, they are different and no, Project Sansar won't replace Second Life As We Know It, which BTW has a Sansar continent in it established 13 years ago.

However, none of this matters in the real world of virtuality. To get a sense of how this might go, you have to look at Virtual World History.

When Second Life was created, The Sims Online and There emptied out -- there was a huge wave of departures and those worlds were never the same again.

To be sure, some of the wave washed back in disappointment or over technical issues, but the bottom line is, both those worlds ended up dying totally, or dying for a time and then making lesser comebacks, because of Second Life which was different but newer and shinier and better.

Games like Tale in the Desert still exist as a very niche fan group; there is a more primitive SL-like virtual world whose name I'm forgetting now which specialized in building sets and communities and such that I think still persists; I still get mail from some of these old VWs that I thought had died that some fans or old devs keep alive. But the reality is, none of them have any sizeable populations and will never make anyone any money.

The wooshing sound will be heard throughout the land, and the only question is whether the Lindens will see any reason to keep alive their rump first iteration of SL. What matters isn't what they say; what matters is what they do. And there is no telling what they may be forced to do if their world goes unvisited like the Sims did. 

[Prokofy Neva]

I hadn't seen that, but it's not surprising. When Ebbe told Jo that SL had "many years left" he meant like...2...or 3....and then it will be done because THEY will be done and won't be able to afford it.

[Parhelion Palou]

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Vivienne Schell wrote:

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Amchai wrote:

Thanks for the responses ... for one, my rig is definitely VR ready for Sansar

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Mine too. But what about these 700 dollars for that funny goggle and about the 99 percent majority of stone aged, anti-progress, reactionary, stupid and not yet born ignorant creeps who refuse to buy the 980 GTX hi-end rig which is considered to be minimum requirement for the overwhelmingly stunning next generation VR experience?

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Haven't heard about the 10-series NVidia cards yet? A 1070 is superior to the 980GTX at less than half the price. Even the 1060 (mid-$200 range) can handle the Rift & Vive, though I'd use the 1070 if I ever wanted to buy VR goggles.

 

[wherorangi]

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Prokofy Neva wrote:

 

The wooshing sound will be heard throughout the land, and the only question is whether the Lindens will see any reason to keep alive their rump first iteration of SL. What matters isn't what they say; what matters is what they do. And there is no telling what they may be forced to do if their world goes unvisited like the Sims did. 

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i agree with this

i think a relevant thing Ebbe Linden did say was that somebody sometime in the future is going to make a multi-world, that is bigger better brighter and shinier than SL. His view is that he thinks LL should be that somebody, and that future sometime for LL is now

am pretty sure we will woosh if Sansar is bigger brighter shinier but better

if it isnt and there is no woosh from SL and/or a woosh into it from other worlders/gamers as well, then Sansar will be a fail and LL probably be looking for a new CEO, even if SL remains

 

[Derek Torvalar]

I think Ebbe years are different from ours. Beta for Sansar was supposed to be in 2015 wasn't it? Or was it the first half of 2016? 

1 Ebbe year = 2 Earth years.

IOW Ebbe is from Mars.

(Perrie?)

[Perrie Juran]

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Derek Torvalar wrote:

I think Ebbe years are different from ours. Beta for Sansar was supposed to be in 2015 wasn't it? Or was it the first half of 2016? 

1 Ebbe year = 2 Earth years.

IOW Ebbe is from Mars.

(Perrie?)

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Ebbe failed to take into account Mars going into retrograde. 

But to the topic at hand, until Sansar opens and we get a look at what it really is there's no real way to answer this question.  Will Sansar be compelling enough that we will want to migrate there?

I've expressed my opinion about Sansar in the past.  Linden Lab doesn't care one whit if we migrate there or not.  We are not the target customers for Sansar.

[Amethyst Jetaime]

I agree with Perrie.  We just don't know much about Sansar to say if it will even fly.  I also think from everything I've read and looked at that SL residents are not the target audience.

What we do know is that Sansare will not be a world like SL.  It will be a group of 'experiences'.  My impression is that Sansar is a platform for professional developers and content creators.  It's yet to be seen how many of these will jump in and create worlds that attract SL people.  

Not all SL people will be attracted to it particularly if they can't create things there and sell them to make money to help fund their virtual lives, or even just create for their own pleasure.  Other's won't because they won't give up their inventories to move there or friends that don't want to go, although a some may go and play there once in a while.

I doubt LL is going to provide professional developers with a free platform and since nothings been said about fees, it may be too expensive for many SL developers and creators.   Land for homes may or may not be more expensive, depending on the developer of the 'home' experience who will price it.  There may even be a charge to get into entertainment experiences such as clubs, as someone will have to pay LL for the use of their platform and professional developers will be looking to pass those costs on to the consumer, most likely.  I also doubt professional content creators will be giving much away for free. Many SL people, particularly late comers, want everything free and others don't want or can't spend any money.

Of course this is all speculation.  However LL will eventually close SL when it is no longer profitable.  if the above points turn out to be true in whole or part  AND SL closes, many people may very well migrate to other virtual worlds offered by Open Sim developers or to rival virtual worlds instead of Sansar that meet their needs better.  

[ChinRey]

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wherorangi wrote:

i think a relevant thing Ebbe Linden did say was that somebody sometime in the future is going to make a multi-world, that is bigger better brighter and shinier than SL. His view is that he thinks LL should be that somebody, and that future sometime for LL is now

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Not quite: his view was that LL should be that somebody. This was an idea he mentioned very early in the process and it was easy to shoot it down right away. Information that has turned up later, has made it even less realistic.

[Bitsy Buccaneer]

My read on the situation is that Sansar is (at present) more about limited, controlled experiences. That makes sense because it reduces the glorious chaos and cacophany of textures and objects that is SL.

As tech improves, the need for that degree of optimisation will decrease. Eventually (and perhaps much sooner than us commoners might think), everything will advance enough that an open-ended SL style environment is manageable.

So I think Sansar is where LL is learning how to build their end of it. If that's the case, they would want SL to continue until it can be more or less merged or VR elements added into the SL viewer.

(I'm sure I've gotten some of the wording wrong because I'm not a tech expert, so please read for the big picture and ideas not specifics.)

[wherorangi]

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ChinRey wrote:

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wherorangi wrote:

i think a relevant thing Ebbe Linden did say was that somebody sometime in the future is going to make a multi-world, that is bigger better brighter and shinier than SL. His view is that he thinks LL should be that somebody, and that future sometime for LL is now

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Not quite: his view

was

that LL should be that somebody. This was an idea he mentioned very early in the process and it was easy to shoot it down right away. Information that has turned up later, has made it even less realistic.

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We SLers gave lots of reasons why we might not move and where we think his (Ebbe Linden) thinkings are/were wrong

this doesnt change anything as far as what LL are doing, and anything Slers have said hasnt deterred them. LL are building Sansar

like what Prokofy said. It isnt what LL (or anyone incl. us) says that matters, is what they/we do that matters

[Phil Deakins]

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THEGOATOFMENDES wrote:

Forum regulars will laugh at you or get angry for asking this but the truth is - if Sansar is successful, of COURSE it will replace SL

Sansar is meant to be a next gen, high end evolved concept - why bother with it if it isn't better than SL?

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Ignorance is bliss, so they say. But at this stage in the game, ignorance about Sansar is inexcusable. Your ignorance is inexcusable.

When LL first announced the new project, we all thought it was going to a super-SL - souped-up SL. That sort of thing. And, if that were true, your opinion would be spot on. But we later learned that the new project (Sansar) isn't going to be a virtual world like SL, WoW, etc. It isn't going to be a virtual world at all, and your ignorance about it, is inexcusable. I suggest you spend a little time discovering what Sansar will be.

[Phil Deakins]

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Prokofy Neva wrote:

I hadn't seen that, but it's not surprising. When Ebbe told Jo that SL had "many years left" he meant like...2...or 3....and then it will be done because THEY will be done and won't be able to afford it.

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The word 'many' does not imply 2 or 3. It implies significantly more than that. Moreover, you have no idea what he meant, so it was silly of you to say, "he meant ...". Like everyone else, you can only guess at what he meant.

That said, Ebbe's statement cannot be taken literally, because he had no idea how many years SL could continue to run for. My guess is that his statement meant that they intend that SL will continue for many years (significantly more than 2 or 3) as long as it is profitable.

[Parhelion Palou]

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Bitsy Buccaneer wrote:

My read on the situation is that Sansar is (at present) more about limited, controlled experiences. That makes sense because it reduces the glorious chaos and cacophany of textures and objects that is SL.

As tech improves, the need for that degree of optimisation will decrease. Eventually (and perhaps much sooner than us commoners might think), everything will advance enough that an open-ended SL style environment is manageable.

So I think Sansar is where LL is learning how to build their end of it. If that's the case, they would want SL to continue until it can be more or less merged or VR elements added into the SL viewer.

(I'm sure I've gotten some of the wording wrong because I'm not a tech expert, so please read for the big picture and ideas not specifics.)

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Sansar won't turn into a big open world. That's not what it's meant to be. As Ebbe said, LL wants to be the Wordpress of virtual worlds. They want to provide the infrastructure that companies (or individuals) can use to create their own virtual worlds. Those customers are unlikely to want to have their worlds mashed together. Think Google, Microsoft, and Facebook would like to have their websites merged into a single one?

BTW, Ebbe once expected the world/experience owners to provide their own registration systems. I don't know if it's still the expectation, but I can see why a company would want to do its own registration. World/experience owners will advertise their own worlds on their own websites. LL may provide a directory, but with Sansar they're getting out of the business of dealing with the end user.

 

[Amchai]

Also why not some sort of flotation or buy-out ?

[Qie Niangao]

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Parhelion Palou wrote:

Sansar won't turn into a big open world. That's not what it's meant to be. As Ebbe said, LL wants to be the Wordpress of virtual worlds. They want to provide the infrastructure that companies (or individuals) can use to create their own virtual worlds. Those customers are unlikely to want to have their worlds mashed together. Think Google, Microsoft, and Facebook would like to have their websites merged into a single one?

BTW, Ebbe once expected the world/experience owners to provide their own registration systems. I don't know if it's still the expectation, but I can see why a company would want to do its own registration. World/experience owners will advertise their own worlds on their own websites. LL may provide a directory, but with Sansar they're getting out of the business of dealing with the end user.

 

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At least in theory one of those virtual worlds created inside Sansar could be Second Life, or close enough to draw over enough SLers that SL itself folds. Sansar won't have the technology capable of supporting SL as we know it for "many" years, if ever, but I suspect that is nonetheless LL's plan for a graceful shutdown of SL, someday.

Thing is, I don't expect Sansar to succeed. To me, the whole business model seems irrationally optimistic about how big the market will be for the making of virtual world entertainments and other "experiences". A "Wordpress" to support the creation of such things only makes sense if there's a truly huge demand to create the things it will support.

There are a lot of blog writers. Will virtual world experiences really be a comparably popular medium of expression, ever?

The LL folks are, basically, game developers, so it's natural that they should see the world populated by folks craving to develop games. They're encouraged in this faith by the game engines supplying somewhat similar functionality -- not competition yet, but if Sansar actually uncovers a real market, how long would the Lab's first-mover advantage last?

Also, the whole thing reminds me of one of LL's most spectacular public failures -- yes, even worse than the initial Viewer 2 launch: The government and enterprise marketing of SL. The idea was that those big players really wanted to use and control their own virtual world environments, and wanted LL to provision and administer the technology, with those enterprise-class customers supplying users and mediating sign-up. Turned out the market was tiny and easy enough to satisfy with a few decrepit OpenSim installations.

Granted, day one Sansar will support easy web sign-up and initial access, clearing one hurdle for experience-providers. Easy or not, though, I question whether this roll-your-own-experience market can be hyped into the size and exuberance needed to turn Sansar into a viable business.