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Is somebody manipulating sell orders?


HisaDrug
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You guys know what I'm talking about.

It's a matter of time the exchange rate solars up to 290 over night at this point.

I'm so disappointed whatever/whoever is causing this ridiculous suicidal marketplay because I remember when I could sell for 247 after waiting for 7 days and the rate was still steady. That was last year. What the hell happened this year?

It's 261 right now. Are you kidding me?

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I see numerous merchants on the marketplace lowered their prices down to 50 (from about 300 per item) because of its capiricous profits which i suspect is affected by the whole collapsing promise of our steady income like last year.

I strongly believe a lot of residents are actually money laundrying in second life and Linden Lab can't do anything about it to stop it. Even if they're manipulating the market to "prevent" something, it's equavelent of burning up the entire field for several flies and I don't see we'll make any money here in the future, unless LL would cut the veteran merchants some slack. I wish they would instead of singling us out for making more than they think we should.

I love second life so much but then this is so pessimistic. I've been scanning over the forums to see who actually made a rant about it. I haven't seen much lately and I can see why.

Pessimism.

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Time of the month, this has happened every 30 days and matches the spikes in yellow on the map.

There are far more USD being taken out than being put in. At US night this means we often see the 10mio or so on buy orders eaten and the floor fall out.

Only 10mio at 271 buy now, the pressure on the sell side though is huge with already 87mio below the 258 point.

 

258/268 has been broken. 260/270 is the new norm I think. And in 30 days it will slip again to maybe 265/275.

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HisaDrug wrote:

I see numerous merchants on the marketplace lowered their prices down to 50 (from about 300 per item) because of its capiricous profits which i suspect is affected by the whole collapsing promise of our steady income like last year.

I strongly believe a lot of residents are actually money laundrying in second life and Linden Lab can't do anything about it to stop it. Even if they're manipulating the market to "prevent" something, it's equavelent of burning up the entire field for several flies and I don't see we'll make any money here in the future, unless LL would cut the veteran merchants some slack. I wish they would instead of singling us out for making more than they think we should.

I love second life so much but then this is so pessimistic. I've been scanning over the forums to see who actually made a rant about it. I haven't seen much lately and I can see why.

Pessimism.

It isn't up to LL to stop any money laundering.  In fact it would be against the law for them to enforce any laws against it.  They only are required to report total amounts cashed out by anyone one person above a certain level to the IRS.  It is then the feds that would investigate it and stop it outside of SL by arresting people etc., or report it to the equivalent agency if a different currency is being received by a person not living in the US to do the same.

Money laundering involves buying $L's with ill gotten currency, holding it for a while then cashing out, perhaps using several or more avatars.  Money laundering doesn't involve people cashing out money they earn in SL by having a business.

Lastly no one promised anyone stead income ever.  Markets change all the time.  People have more money to spend since they get more $L to the US dollar.  If profits are going down for a merchant it's simply because of either demand has changed for their products or that some are finding the new search engine in MP having an adverse effect on them.  

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HisaDrug wrote:

 

I love second life so much but then this is so pessimistic. I've been scanning over the forums to see who actually made a rant about it. I haven't seen much lately and I can see why.

Pessimism.

Devaluation of L$ + jelly dolls + new Marketplace search = the beginning of the end

SL has been my sole real life income for 9 years now. I made lots of money in the pre-mesh times. Now i make only half of what i made back in the day, and the amount of work is like 10x more. I used to release a new item every week. Now i barely can make 1 a month. If the workload increases even more because i need to optimise because of this jelly dolls joke, it will probably be 1 new release in 2 months... More tedious work, less satisfaction and fun of the creation process, less possibility to express my creativity by making what i want, less and less lindens... Once i hit a certain low of monthly income, i'm outta here. And i bet i will not be the only one.

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What for me, I do think that the biggest problem of SL is cheapies. It will crash SL one day and it all tends to it. Cheap prefabs, cheap animations. Look what is on top sells - resellers mostly. With sets of prefab furniture with 10000000+ animations and cheap price. They occupy market, and really what reason for some creator to make interesting mesh clothes once in a week/month and sell it for decent price as unique if there is some guano makers with mesh prefabs for 50 ld full perm? And just colored they are sold everywhere for 50 ld by resellers? Mesh furniture? Really good unique mesh furniture gets copied in bad quality with same idea but really BAD quality, some kinda fast poor copy, add copied 10000+ animations and yes, it beats everything, it beats unique original product that was made bofore. And animations? I am animation creator, I make them by hands, I spend time and efforts trying to make something unusual, interesting, long lasting with great variety of movements and sure I dont want to sell it full perm or if I do - I do it limited and expensive choosing creators who can buy it and add in good unique products. But how can I compete with some copy-cats who immediately after release or even before release (spying on my land) copy my animaton by pose and making them looking on pic like mine but very poor made and selling it full perm extremely cheap? Really I stopped creating time ago because it is useless. SL becomes kinda copy of itself but very bad copy. Cheap prefabs, cheap animations, cheap end products with cheap prefabs and animations. It is some kind of Money Laundring yes. But what in result ? Inventories full of guano? And why people will search for something unique and interesting if they try to search in marketplace and get mostly gatcha and cheapies? Will somebody get over page 10? You need to break head to find something really interesting among these Cheap Best Sellers. And good creators have choice - follow and set down prices to get at least some income to beat copycats or keep usual prices and wait for their customer maybe. Maybe. I am really in situation when I need to sell my expo sims because I dont get money to pay for them anymore.

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And if we talk about sell orders - it is the same - cheap sellers. Look on quantity under 260 - 80 miln - it could be sold within 24 hours because market data says - dayly volume is about 80 miln. But cheap sellers cant wait. They cant wait! They need to sell it anyway and fast. 1 miln for 259? 10 minutes to wait? NOOOOOOOO! I will set for 260! And next one - NOOOOOO! I wont wait when others will sell their 100 000 for 260, i will set 261! And then panic starts growing... I follow lindens market for some months (since this rollercoaster started) and it is fun to see how panic appears just because of 1 miln that can be really sold within 10 minutes. And I do think it is same problem of cheap sellers who cant wait and cant make their brains think a little bit about consequences.

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Iren Tinkel wrote:

And if we talk about sell orders - it is the same - cheap sellers. Look on quantity over 260 - 80 miln - it could be sold within 24 hours because market data says - dayly volume is about 80 miln. But cheap sellers cant wait. They cant wait! They need to sell it anyway and fast. 1 miln for 259? 10 minutes to wait? NOOOOOOOO! I will set for 260! And next one - NOOOOOO! I wont wait when others will sell their 100 000 for 260, i will set 261! And then panic starts growing... I follow lindens market for some months (since this rollercoaster started) and it is fun to see how panic appears just because of 1 miln that can be really sold within 10 minutes. And I do think it is same problem of cheap sellers who cant wait and cant make their brains think a little bit about consequences.

Maybe you have the luxury to wait but not all sellers do.  They may have RL bills to pay.  

You can wait until the cows come home but you won't sell your $L's unless someone is willing to buy them at the rate you want.  Only if all sellers were willing to offer less and wait will waiting have any effect.

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these are not small/medium fish merchants who are doing this. It happens way too fast (usually within hours) for many people to catch up so quickly. It's a few people (one person?) who dumps huge amounts, millions at a time. And when there is suddenly 10 mil or so one point higher, the smll/medium merchants have to follow, because it takes days for 10 mil to resolve. Those who can wait (like me) do wait, but there's no point because while you wait somebody will dump another 10 mil even higher... I currently have orders on nearly every point down to 253, with the oldest one sitting there since June 13, and they will probably never fill.

I think the theory that somebody launders money in SL could explain this devaluation behaviour.

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There are some great imaginations here... but, the market data shows everyone is pretty much misunderstanding what is happening.

https://secondlife.com/my/lindex/market.php?

The table lower on the page shows the average quantity of L$ traded and the max quantity. The max is about 1.3 mil. So, no one is trading 'millions' on any given day.

http://blog.nalates.net/2016/07/29/misunderstanding-the-second-life-lindex/

This is the way a free market works. Things change. Figure it out.

Money laundering? No organization is going to launder money at US$20 a pop... that would require 50,000 transaction to clear US$1 million. Not even at US$5,000 (L$1.3 mil) a pop is it going to work. Do some math. Drug dealers and terrorists are working in billions of US$... US$1 bil =  L$260 bil... There isn't that kind of oney moving through the Lindex.

 

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I have been wondering about this too. It keep going up and never stops.

I have a question, if I sell it for $L248 does it ever sell? I know it will take months perhaps but do I ever sell the lindens? I once tried and waited 3 weeks and nothing so I changed it but I keep wondering if I should wait.

I sell once a month and each time I am scared to see what the selling range is. It's going up all the time and really saddens me. 

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LovedWarrior Quan wrote:

I have a question, if I sell it for $L248 does it ever sell?

248 is unlikely to ever be seen as a sell again.

It would need a huge surge of limit buy orders (minimum $240mio of buys). That's about 1 million USD of limit buys with nobody limit selling any lindens.

3mio of buy orders left at 271 now and then the price starts moving again. Unless someone manipuates the market and pegs those (maybe adding 3mio buy at 270) then it's time to sell fast. Sell orders are going to jump to 270 within a day.

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Iren Tinkel wrote:

Luxury to wait one day to get order filled? If there is 80 miln - it takes something about 24 hours to fill order. Of course, if there is no panic trying to beat each other with 100 000.

It is going to take more than one day for any kind of movement for a sell order at the older rate you want to be fulfilled - if it ever will.  

Believe me, I don't like it any more than you do.  But I don't think there is any conspiracy or money laundering.  I really think that with the change in the "Buy $L's" screen is at least partly to blame with more buyers using the 'Best Buy (Limit Buy)" rate and demanding more $L's for their RL money. 

 

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Elvina Ewing wrote:


 because of this jelly dolls joke, it will probably be 1 new release in 2 months... More tedious work, less satisfaction and fun of the creation process, less possibility to express my creativity by making what i want, less and less lindens...


off topic, but  improve your creations, create low impact clothes... and advertise that...people will buy those

If you keep making things with huge ARC your sales will even go down further.

Move with what the market needs. Looking what you had in the past isn't really relevant.

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Amethyst Jetaime wrote:


 I really think that with the change in the "Buy $L's" screen is at least partly to blame with more buyers using the 'Best Buy (Limit Buy)" rate and demanding more $L's for their RL money.  


Amethyst, there is a 10 point gap between the best limit buy and the best limit sell. Therefore the best limit buy order will never be filled by the best limit sell offer. They have to match for that to happen.

This is how it works. Limit sell orders are filled by Market buy orders. A market buy order is when the buyer does not set a price, but will accept the best limit sell order. These are mostly people who buy in the viewer (the majority of buyers). 

The limit buy orders are filled by market sell orders - sellers who don't set a limit sell order but will take the best limit buy order. These sellers would be selling at currently 271.

In this market, it isn't a case of people demanding more L$ for their dollar, because the vast majority of orders are small market buys within the viewer, and not limit buy orders. If this was not the case then the two sides (buy and sell) would need to meet (be equal) before any transaction can occur between limit orders.

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HisaDrug wrote:

unless LL would cut the veteran merchants some slack.
I wish they would instead of singling us out for making more than they think we should.

I love second life so much but then this is so pessimistic. I've been scanning over the forums to see who actually made a rant about it. I haven't seen much lately and I can see why.

Pessimism.

I stopped ranting. I ranted myself hoarse.

And what I hated most in the numerous threads was when people who were not affected by it would act like it's of no consequence, and act like they are experts when they don't use the LindeX. People who don't know what it's like when you put in so much effort and see your profits decreasing. Why don't they just stick to what concerns them and leave this issue to those affected by it? Instead of adding lame answers like, 'this is not new', which only serves to add to the frustration.

Yes, currency markets go down all the time, but businesses often go bankcrupt as a result. So, it isn't a comfort to say 'it happens'.

Well, I lost all my desire to create. You work hard to increase profit, but it takes away the drive when you have a tide against you.

I bolded the part here that I think hits the target.

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Nalates Urriah wrote:

There are some great imaginations here... but, the market data shows everyone is pretty much misunderstanding what is happening.

 

 

 

In your blog you say this

'Until someone is willing to offer L$ below L$258/$1 (bigger number is lower price for L$) or someone is willing to bid more than L$268/$1 (smaller number is a high price) nothing happens, no transactions.'

You are showing your misunderstanding right here. Limit sell and market buy orders are going through every few seconds.

Here's another person who has probably never used the LindeX. Certainly hasn't taken the time to watch and refresh to see what is actually happening.

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Alwin Alcott wrote:


off topic, but  improve your creations, create low impact clothes... and advertise that...people will buy those

If you keep making things with huge ARC your sales will even go down further.

Move with what the market needs. Looking what you had in the past isn't really relevant.

1) I improve my creations since the day one. I continuously grow as a 3D artist and learn new tricks every day. It shows in my creations too. This is a obvious and beaten stereotype advice, thank you very much if i didnt know this myself i wouldn't have managed to stay on top of the game for 9 years. This is so not *my* problem. I can create the best and most perfect items on the grid, but if people cant find them, they won't buy them.

2) Why would i want to spend 2 months creating one outfit severily immobilizing my creative freedom and restricting my imagination with low-impactness and lowrez textures and then sell it for pennies?? While i cold for example express every little detail in millions of polys and 3000x3000 textures and sell it for real dollars on Renderosity without wasting my time on boring and tedious stuff like creating low LODs too? It just doesn't pay off anymore, ok?


Rya Nitely wrote

Well, I lost all my desire to create. You work hard to increase profit, but it takes away the drive when you have a tide against you.

QFT


Rya Nitely wrote:


Here's another person who has probably never used the LindeX. Certainly hasn't taken the time to watch and refresh to see what is actually happening.

Exactly.
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Rya Nitely wrote:


Amethyst Jetaime wrote:


 I really think that with the change in the "Buy $L's" screen is at least partly to blame with more buyers using the 'Best Buy (Limit Buy)" rate and demanding more $L's for their RL money.  


Amethyst, there is a 10 point gap between the best limit buy and the best limit sell. Therefore the best limit buy order will never be filled by the best limit sell offer. They have to match for that to happen.

This is how it works. Limit sell orders are filled by
Market
buy orders. A market buy order is when the buyer does
not
set a price, but will accept the best limit sell order. These are mostly people who buy in the viewer (the majority of buyers). 

The limit buy orders are filled by market sell orders - sellers who don't set a limit sell order but will take the best limit buy order. These sellers would be selling at currently 271.

In this market, it isn't a case of people demanding more L$ for their dollar, because the vast majority of orders are small market buys within the viewer, and not limit buy orders. If this was not the case then the two sides (buy and sell) would need to meet (be equal) before any transaction can occur between limit orders.

I know very well how the Lindex works and that most buyers and sellers just use the market buy/sell option when they want instant results.

I also see many questions in the answers section from people who 'bought' Lindens using "Best Buy" and wonder where their money is.  It's not unusual to get several a day from people who have no idea how a limit buy or sell works.  The fact is that most of these people offer not enough RL cash for the $L's they want.  

That's not to say that there are other people, probably a lot more, that make offer for a bit more $L's for their money that are willing to wait or that have their offer's taken pretty quickly.  It's these people that could very well be driving the price of $L's down.

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