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Who sell lindens like this?


Kendra Parfort
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OK.. like it wasn't bad enough that the linden selling rates are already pretty high, some "genius" thought it's a good idea to sell 300k at a 5 point higher rate than the highest one. :| Really tho? really?!

https://i.gyazo.com/d19a20715d5ef2f2b62a90522f9306aa.png

If he really wanted to sell before everyone else he could have placed his sell at 261.. but nooo.. he had to sell at 265 because reasons. :|

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(that 260 2,340 sale  wasn't there at the start, it came in quite a bit after the big one)

Only reason I can think of is they needed to cash out very fast.

Selling at 265, 6 linden under, should mean nobody would jump in 1 linden under. There was only 24Mio buy on the other side at the time at 278, so it's a guaranteed fast sale. But that 24mio on the buy side has been there a few days.

I saw it when it was at 830K (my snapshot below is a little after I started watching that sale) and it was likely higher when placed, let's work on 830K

What they got USD$3,132 for they could have sold for 830000/260 = USD$3192 so US$60 in exchange losses.

 

Suspicions?

* Teir needs to be paid now so they estate isn't de-rezzed. 

* BF/GF breaking up and one liquidates and runs fast before the other wakes.

* Account stolen.

* S.O. banned for some reason and desire to cash out fast as possible.

* Need to buy some regions now.

* Someone with a lot of cash reserves manipulating the market and trying to cause another sell run.

* Mistake in entry of amount at 265 and not 260 and not paying attention as it sells over 10 minutes.

(and I know some are not plausible, I was racking my brains to try to explain why someone would sell at 6 linden under)

 



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I think you are confused.

The confusion comes from the sellers and buyers seeing price differently.

In the Lindex we can say a seller is selling L$ and buying dollars. If dollars are expensive it takes a lot of L$ to buy one. If a car is expensive we pay lots of dollars to buy it. Our frame of reference is what decides what is expensive and cheap.

So, for a L$ seller a price of L$239/$1 is cheaper than paying L$258/$1. But for a L$ buyer a price of L$268/$1 is more expensive than buying L$296/$1. In one case a lower number is better than a higher number while in the opposite case it is reversed and higher is better than lower. (Prices from 7/29/2016 – 8±AM)

Until someone is willing to offer L$ below L$258/$1 (bigger number is lower price for L$) or someone is willing to bid more than L$268/$1 (smaller number is a high price) nothing happens, no transactions.

I took this from my blog post here: http://blog.nalates.net/2016/07/29/misunderstanding-the-second-life-lindex/

 

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Nalates Urriah wrote:

I think you are confused.

 

Let me put this in simple words, look at my screenshot as I say them please.



6mio Lindens were selling at 259/1. Some person comes in and drops 800K at 265/1.

Why would they go 6 lindens under and cheat themselves out of US$60?

 

Does that make more sense to you Nalates? As the OP said

 


Kendra Parfort wrote:

If he really wanted to sell before everyone else he could have placed his sell at 261.. but nooo.. he had to sell at 265 

 

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No, I am not confused. I know that selling the lindens on a higher rate means selling them cheaper (L$265/$1 < L$259/$1)

I know very well how economy works. As I said before, yes, I understand that someone with a lot of L$ to sell (830K as Callum showed us) would prefer to sell cheaper (at a higher rate) and faster. But the problem is how much cheaper you sell. There is really no reason to sell at a difference of 6 lindens..

Let's simplify this:

It's easier to think at selling lindens as buying dolars. Because that way the prices are less confusing.

Selling $L259 for $1 means you buy $1 for $L259... So you pay $L259 for $1.

As any buyer, you want to pay the less amount possible for $1 in order to get more dollars for your lindens.

But, you also want to buy fast, so in order to get in front of the other buyers you offer more for $1 than the others. 

So if the biggest price is $L259 for $1 you pay more and you'll buy first. The problem is how more you pay.. You can pay 260 and you're already first in line, or, in case you're really afraid someone else will offer to pay 260 too and you don't want competition, you can offer 261. But there is no reason at all to pay $L265 for $1 when the highest price is $L259.

In conclusion:

Yes, there is a  reason to pay more than anyone else for $1.

No, there is no reason to pay $L6 more than the higher price for $1.

 

ps. if it's still complicated.. you can change the "$1" with "1 kg of apples". xD

 

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The most likely reason is that the seller of L$ in this case was just not very experienced.

Here is the buy side with the same thing happening



 

An order at 266 or even 267 would do just as well. Not a great loss but unnecessary.

Just as an aside and not in response to anyone, an important point that escapes most people is that the limit buy and limit sell orders don't ever need to match for orders to go through, as the limit orders are filled by market buy and market sell orders. Market buy orders are mainly those placed through the inworld viewer, and market sell orders are people who use the basic instant sell (not very smart because they would sell at the top rate on the buy side).

Therefore, the buy side in the LindeX does not reflect demand for lindens, as the majority of buy orders comes from inworld viewer orders.

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Nalates Urriah wrote:

I think you are confused.

The confusion comes from the sellers and buyers seeing price differently.

In the Lindex we can say a seller is selling L$ and buying dollars. If dollars are expensive it takes a lot of L$ to buy one. If a car is expensive we pay lots of dollars to buy it. Our frame of reference is what decides what is expensive and cheap.

So, for a L$ seller a price of L$239/$1 is cheaper than paying L$258/$1. But for a L$ buyer a price of L$268/$1 is more expensive than buying L$296/$1. In one case a lower number is better than a higher number while in the opposite case it is reversed and higher is better than lower. (Prices from 7/29/2016 – 8±AM)

Until someone is willing to offer L$ below L$258/$1 (bigger number is lower price for L$) or someone is willing to bid more than L$268/$1 (smaller number is a high price) nothing happens, no transactions.

I took this from my blog post here: 

 

I think it's quite obvious what Kendra meant. I would refer to it as a high exchange rate. It's offering a higher amount of L$ for a dollar. It really doesn't matter how you word it, when it's obvious what is meant.

I wouldn't be doing a blog post about this if I was you, because perhaps you are confused, particularly where you say 'nothing happens, no transaction'. Limit sell orders are being filled almost continuously by market buy orders placed inworld. The limit buy orders are a bit slower to be filled as these are filled by market sell orders, and most savvy sellers do not sell at market.

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I just finished reading your blog post and the comments. Jack makes a lot of sense. As I have said many times myself, the most plausible explanation for the devaluation of the L$ is that LL increased supply. When you increase the supply of something, and the demand is unchanged you get devaluation. Simple.

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When i woke up this morning there was about 61M at 257 and that was the highest price. In the course of the next few hours (while it was a rather early Sunday morning in US) there magically appeared 20M at 258, while there is still about 62M at 257. I think it is highly unlikely LL is doing this on a Sunday morning...

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Rya Nitely wrote:

The most likely reason is that the seller of L$ in this case was just not very experienced.
[ .... ]


That's the most likely explanation. ^^  When I'm faced with peculiar behavior, I find that it's safer (and often more likely to be true) that the person is ignorant rather than acting out an evil plan. There have been an unusual number of posts in Answers recently by people who quite obviously do not understand that the LindeX is an exchange, not a shop.  They seem to misunderstand what a limit order is, possibly because they have no RL experience with currency exchanges or stock markets. 

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The most likely reason is that the seller of L$ in this case was just not very experienced.
[ .... ]

That's the most likely explanation. ^^  When I'm faced with peculiar behavior, I find that it's safer (and often more likely to be true) that the person is ignorant rather than acting out an evil plan. 

 

I am not thinking someone has an evil plan neither.. But I do think it's a bit of both ignorance and "doucheness" (because evilness is too much to say).

I found it hard to believe that someone who made 800k inworld is inexperienced.

 

 

 

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Elvina Ewing wrote:

When i woke up this morning there was about 61M at 257 and that was the highest price. In the course of the next few hours (while it was a rather early
Sunday
morning in US) there magically appeared 20M at 258, while there is still about 62M at 257. I think it is highly unlikely LL is doing this on a Sunday morning...

What you saw on that Sunday morning could have been normal activity by some seller(s).

LL don't have to continue injecting new supply to maintain these levels. They only needed to inject L$ until the goal was reached and stable. I believe (hope) we are there now, and have been for a few weeks. It's stable around 257 - 258. This is a very tidy 10 point increase compared to the long term 247 - 248.

It also makes sense for LL to devalue the L$ as an adjustment to falling currencies around the world. The L$ was becoming more and more expensive for many foreign users.

 

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Rya Nitely wrote:


What you saw on that Sunday morning could have been normal activity by some seller(s).

 

I'm thinking this is the exact same seller(s) who's been doing this all along since May, just like LL said. Probably somebody from Asia (Anshe Chung?) or Europe, judging by the time of day this usually happens. A lot of L$ (several millions) get dumped in a short time period (a few hours), so i don't think those are just ordinary people like you and me moving their orders up. Obviously, this all happens with LL's consent as they are not doing anything to intervene.

Only last Saturday my order at 257 came through and took only a week, and now there's already a whole of 50M on 258, and 7M at 259, so i bet if i want to sell at 257 now it's gonna take way more than a week... -.-

sigh...

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  • 2 weeks later...


Elvina Ewing wrote:


Rya Nitely wrote:


What you saw on that Sunday morning could have been normal activity by some seller(s).

 

I'm thinking this is the exact same seller(s) who's been doing this all along since May, just like LL said. Probably somebody from Asia (Anshe Chung?) or Europe, judging by the time of day this usually happens. A lot of L$ (several millions) get dumped in a short time period (a few hours), so i don't think those are just ordinary people like you and me moving their orders up. Obviously, this all happens with LL's consent as they are not doing anything to intervene.

Only last Saturday my order at 257 came through and took only a week, and now there's already a whole of 50M on 258, and 7M at 259, so i bet if i want to sell at 257 now it's gonna take way more than a week... -.-

sigh...

What I can't understand about this 'dumping money' or 'capital flight' theory is this. Where are the 'several million' L$ coming from? How is it being generated? If assets are being sold off (or business is booming) for this seller(s) then there must be a matching quantity of L$ being bought to pay for these goods and services. This would show up as an increase in daily volume, but demand for L$ (daily volume) has been relatively constant over time. This is why I believe it's fresh L$ (newly printed). If you increase supply, and demand remains constant, you get devaluation.

Selling your assets to wind down your business can only happen if you have people willing to buy, and L$ supply and demand would be equal. There are no banks or hoarded money in SL. Any US$ going out of SL has to come in first.

Devaluation of the L$ may be unpleasant for sellers but it isn't a real concern (yet). A cheaper L$ is not a bad thing for business if it stimulates spending.

What would be concerning is if L$ daily volume started decreasing.

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Last week there was nothing left on 258 at one point, and the highest was 257. And now back to 90 millions on 258!

I think part of it comes from the people who accumulated a lot of L$ on the lower rates and moved their orders up, there's not much left between 248 and 257 now though, but those rates sure keep getting thinner and thinner.

Added to big sellers, it can move up pretty fast even without any help from LL.

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