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DejaHo

The $ value of the L

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Today, the cost of an L, please excuse the following pun, has traded virtually unchanged since before the announcement by Mr. Ebbe Altberg of a 2015 v2 release of Second Life.. That's only 6-8 months from today.

Why doesn't a pending v2SL affect the $ to L costs? 

With v2SL won't consumer goods cost us more? Mr. Altberg told us we are transferable - avatars and Lindens - but will there not be an economies of scale thing happening here?  

When will the L take a hit? Maybe it's the $ that takes the hit?

Where is the transparency? Where is the SL Economist speaking to this issue?

 

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Maybe because it is just too far out there -- read the announcements again and you will see that 6-8 is more in the "alpha" time and may not even happen then. So YEARS before The New World becomes viable -- and no one really knows if it will.

 

So it could very well be that folks just aren't worrying about it. If The Lab was a publicly traded company you might have seen some change in the stock price -- either up or down. But for most of us, the announcement -- after more was revealed and knowing that they have been working on the FOR SOME TIME ALREADY -- makes little impact to our day to day world. And to be fair the Linden is more controlled now that it was in the distant past just like most currencies are.


You can stay. You can go. But it won't be in six months -- unless of course you jumped ship for another platform.   

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DejaHo wrote:

Today, the cost of an L, please excuse the following pun, has traded virtually unchanged since before the announcement by Mr. Ebbe Altberg of a 2015 v2 release of Second Life.. That's only 6-8 months from today.

You've misunderstood or misquoted Ebbe. I don't expect to see SL2 before 2016, if at all.

 

Why doesn't a pending v2SL affect the $ to L costs? 

 

 
The vast majority of SL1 residents, who don't even know Ebbe/LL/The Forums exist, know nothing of SL2. Many of us who do know about it aren't thinking about it. SL1 continues to run as usual. It's not surprising the economy does as well.

With v2SL won't consumer goods cost us more?

There's no evidence to suggest that, or anything, other than SL2 is out there in the future somewhere. I've no desire to speculate and no reason to think my speculation (or yours) is accurate or useful.

Mr. Altberg told us we are transferable - avatars and Lindens - but will there not be an economies to scale thing happening here?

The early day economies of scale of SL1 didn't make it prohibitively expensive. Why would SL2 be different?

 

When will the L take a hit?

We know almost nothing about SL2, how could anyone predict the effect it's arrival may or may not have?

Maybe it's the $ that takes the hit?

I don't think that helps your credibility.

 

Where is the transparency?

SL2 has been pre-announced. What more transparency do you want?

Where is the SL Economist speaking to this issue?

LL creates the platform on which the economy runs, and is the only holder of the big picture economic data. I don't think they'd be willing to reveal that picture to potential competition. They have more interest in the success of SL1 and SL2 than almost any one of us. Their jobs depend on it.


 

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DejaHo wrote:

I refuse to believe my legacy stipend will hold the same value in v2.  

What you believe and what actually is needn't be the same thing. This has happened to me. Sometimes I adjust my beliefs, sometimes I end up in the emergency room.

This is why I try to avoid believing.

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Madelaine McMasters wrote:


DejaHo wrote:

Today, the cost of an L, please excuse the following pun, has traded virtually unchanged since before the announcement by Mr. Ebbe Altberg of a 2015 v2 release of Second Life.. That's only 6-8 months from today.

You've misunderstood or misquoted Ebbe. I don't expect to see SL2 before 2016, if at all.

.


 

If v2 is going to be bigger and better as promised then it is going to cost more - economies of scale.   It will also have a direct hit on the value of the L in v1.  You don't think so?   Imo, the rest of what you wrote is fluff unless you are an economist.  

 

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Madelaine McMasters wrote:


DejaHo wrote:

Today, the cost of an L, please excuse the following pun, has traded virtually unchanged since before the announcement by Mr. Ebbe Altberg of a 2015 v2 release of Second Life.. That's only 6-8 months from today.

You've misunderstood or misquoted Ebbe. I don't expect to see SL2 before 2016, if at all.


 

In your most humble opinion Is that early or late 2016?  What do you mean by if at all, are you saying the CEO has lied to us? 

 

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DejaHo wrote:


Madelaine McMasters wrote:


DejaHo wrote:

Today, the cost of an L, please excuse the following pun, has traded virtually unchanged since before the announcement by Mr. Ebbe Altberg of a 2015 v2 release of Second Life.. That's only 6-8 months from today.

You've misunderstood or misquoted Ebbe. I don't expect to see SL2 before 2016, if at all.


 

In your most humble opinion Is that early or late 2016?  What do you mean by if at all, are you saying the CEO has lied to us? 

 

Something as complex as SL2 cannot be taken from concept to delivery in 6-8 months. From my experience with such things, two years seems more likely. So I'd expect to see SL2 ready for occupancy no earlier than mid 2016. I don't think that disagrees terribly with anything Ebbe's been saying. And, to ensure that my opinion is humble, I'll admit that I'm terrible at estimating how long it'll take me to complete a project. That's one reason I retired. I was just getting tired of burning myself out to keep my unrealistic promises. There appear to be some things I cannot learn.

As for "if at all", Ebbe cannot control the unknowns and external forces at work on Linden Lab. I expect Ebbe and his team will work like hell to make their dream come true. But, that is no guarantee of success. If they try their best and fail, as I often do, it is not a lie. It is life.

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DejaHo wrote:


Madelaine McMasters wrote:


DejaHo wrote:

Today, the cost of an L, please excuse the following pun, has traded virtually unchanged since before the announcement by Mr. Ebbe Altberg of a 2015 v2 release of Second Life.. That's only 6-8 months from today.

You've misunderstood or misquoted Ebbe. I don't expect to see SL2 before 2016, if at all.

.


 

If v2 is going to be bigger and better as promised then it is going to cost more - economies of scale.   It will also have a direct hit on the value of the L in v1.  You don't think so?   Imo, the rest of what you wrote is fluff unless you are an economist.  

 

The history of technology is that bigger and better costs less over time (smaller sometimes costs more ;-). My free storage space on Flickr has gone from 250MB to 1TB. My iPhone is faster than my oldest laptop computer, and cost 4x less. If Linden Lab avoids riding that curve, it won't be the technology's fault. SL1's architecture prevents LL from riding the curve. That's why they're working on SL2. I fully expect SL2 to be a better value than SL1. Ebbe knows that if it isn't, SL2 and LL are doomed.

I have no idea how SL2 will affect SL1. Nor do I know how other competitors will affect SL1. The world is not standing still.

I am not an economist, but that doesn't make a difference. Paul Samuelson wouldn't be able to make head or tails of SL1/2 without seeing the numbers. I don't expect LL to reveal those numbers. So your entire "SL economist" discussion is dead in the water. The economist is LL.

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Maybe I am strange, but I do not treat my $L funds in quite the same way that I treat my brokerage account. I worry a lot about long term trends in the brokerage account.  In contrast, my $L's have value purely in the present.  And for me anyway, the value of virtual goods has not changed.  My rent has not changed.  So far, a non-envent.  OK, I may find that I will not be able to use an outfit I purchased today in two or three years, in a different virtual world.  But I have been in SL long enough to know that the odds of me wearing something I purchased 2 years ago are virtually nil, anyway.  I do have some things, like a house and a bed, that I have used for many years, and I will be sad to leave them behide.  But the total cost of all such devices for me was less than the costs of dinner and a movie and a babysitter by a large margin.  So I am not about to lose sleep over it.

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Rhys Goode wrote:

Maybe I am strange, but I do not treat my $L funds in quite the same way that I treat my brokerage account. I worry a lot about long term trends in the brokerage account.  In contrast, my $L's have value purely in the present.  And for me anyway, the value of virtual goods has not changed.  My rent has not changed.  So far, a non-envent.  OK, I may find that I will not be able to use an outfit I purchased today in two or three years, in a different virtual world.  But I have been in SL long enough to know that the odds of me wearing something I purchased 2 years ago are virtually nil, anyway.  I do have some things, like a house and a bed, that I have used for many years, and I will be sad to leave them behide.  But the total cost of all such devices for me was less than the costs of dinner and a movie and a babysitter by a large margin.  So I am not about to lose sleep over it.

If you're strange, it's not for the reasons you've given. All that sounds pretty normal to me.

But you have piqued my interest, Rhys!

;-).

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The fact that you are using a one day old account and the fact that you spoke of the value of your legacy stipend tells me that you've actually been around a while.  And my guess is you've been around long enough to know that LL used to publish a lot more data than they do now.  But that is just a guess.

http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2012/03/01/no-more-quarterly-or-annual-second-life-economy-reports-says-lab/

It can really be hard to decipher because on a day to day basis trading on the Lindex has always fluctuated a lot.  I did expect a dip after the announcement but if there really was one I can't see it.

http://gridsurvey.com/lindex.php

We do know that LL can step in and do things to bolster the Lindex and also that it has some circuit breakers (I think that is the right term) built into it in case there is any major problem.  But again I can not see any thing to indicate that that has happened.

So my conclusion is that overall at the moment Consumer Confidence has not been affected by the announcement.

But as time passes and the New World comes closer to reality that could change.

But I don't see the New World really affecting the value of the Linden Dollar. What effects its value more than anything is its buying power. 

Currently the cost of being in SL is really expensive enough.  If the New World is really more costly to live in than the old it will take a lot more bells and whistles than I think they can offer to get people to migrate or to embrace it in the numbers that they need in order for it to be successful.

So the only thing I can see that could really shake the value of the $L would be a major drop in the active population.  There will probably be a big bump to get over as the transition happens, the question is if LL will be able to step in and stabilize it.  It's a risky position for them because it means pumping real money into the economy but I think that they will be able to.

Regardless, these kinds of risks are part of Venture Capitalism.

 

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First it is not SL2.  It will be (if it works) an entirely different world so it should be called the new world or grid.  It won't even be named SL.

Second, I have know idea where you got the notions you have.  All we know at this point is that LL is working on a new grid but it is too early to say anything about it except that if it works, you can migrate or not, or use both worlds.  You can have the same name and use the same L's in both worlds.  Ebbe also said there would be free accounts there too.

Everything you said is pretty much unfounded speculation.  Personally I'm not making any changes in my SL at least until we know a lot more about the new grid and its closer to being ready to take residents and I know no one who has, other than maybe a people panicking over something that is at least a couple years away that I've seen make a post here on the forums.

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Amethyst Jetaime wrote:

First it is not SL2.  It will be (if it works) an entirely different world so it should be called the new world or grid.  It won't even be named SL.

Second, I have know idea where you got the notions you have.  All we know at this point is that LL is working on a new grid but it is too early to say anything about it except that if it works, you can migrate or not, or use both worlds.  You can have the same name and use the same L's in both worlds.  Ebbe also said there would be free accounts there too.

Everything you said is pretty much unfounded speculation.  Personally I'm not making any changes in my SL at least until we know a lot more about the new grid and its closer to being ready to take residents and I know no one who has, other than maybe a people panicking over something that is at least a couple years away that I've seen make a post here on the forums.

Amethyst, let's call this new thing "Linden Lab's Advanced Digital Environment, 'Dreaming Awake' "   or LLA DE DA!

LL doesn't operate in a vacuum. There are competitors out there vying for the same customer hours and dollars. Why aren't these hand wringers gnashing their teeth about and capabilities and costs of as yet unannounced alternatives to SL from the as yet to be named company that will turn the VR world upside down?

You know they're out there.

They're always out there.

;-).

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ETA, when Ebbe originally spoke of greater Transparency, I don't think he meant opening Linden Lab's  books to public scrutiny.

I can understand how some people might have a major concern in seeing them because of the sizeable investments they have in SL.

I have an investment in it also but it is really minor compared to some people and I'd like the assurance that "all is well" also.  Actually I think they have given us that assurance.  There is no way the investors would have approved this if they weren't ready to back it up with cold hard cash.

So all I can do is watch and in the meanwhile I am enjoying what SL has to offer.

If the doors close tomorrow then I will need to find something else to do.

But that is kind of how life is.

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We don't know much about the proposed new LL world yet.  But it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that the L$ will be valid in the new world as well as Second Life.

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Perrie Juran wrote:

ETA, when Ebbe originally spoke of greater Transparency

... he spoke of opening a backdoor for the NSA.

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Orca Flotta wrote:


 a backdoor for the NSA.

i dont think the NSA need a backdoor on the internets these days

seems is over a billion people already pushing and shoving each other out the way to get the front of the queue for their whole 15 seconds of fame

NSA probably got a whole bunches of analysts and spies already on meds and sick leave just from having to wade thru it all

they probably turn the interwebz watchroom cubicles into nawti stools soon. maybe like a punishment room for spies

jejeje (:

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DejaHo wrote:

Today, the cost of an L, please excuse the following pun, has traded virtually unchanged since before the announcement by Mr. Ebbe Altberg of a 2015 v2 release of Second Life.. That's only 6-8 months from today.

 

That is for the alpha release.. the full version wont be until at least 2016.

 

Why doesn't a pending v2SL affect the $ to L costs? 

Why would it? It isn't SL2 (my fault on that name) It is a new platform entirely.

 

With v2SL won't consumer goods cost us more? Mr. Altberg told us we are transferable - avatars and Lindens - but will there not be an economies of scale thing happening here?  

No, what he said was, "your name and account $L balance would transfer." Avatars will be completely upgraded. That tells me the current AV will not be compatible.

 

When will the L take a hit? Maybe it's the $ that takes the hit?

Why would it? SL isn't going anywhere. There are no plans to close it.

 

Where is the transparency? Where is the SL Economist speaking to this issue?

Seeing as they haven't even made an announcement on their own blog or any official LL owned pages... Most people have no idea about the new platform.

 

 

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If there is something i would worry about regarding economy, then it is the marketplace...
Ever since they changed it so people can just sell directly from inventory the things added to mp has gone crazy.. There are about 3.1 million items there now.. People just throw on mp what ever they can steel to earn a linden...

Many may think ohh that is cool, then things cost almost nothing.. :-)))

The problem with that is that alot of things are almost given away when we look at the price.. That means creators earn less, and LL also earn less when things are sold...
If it gets much worse it will mean that the mp is almost worthless.. Plus many really good creators does not want to spend days on creating an item just to sell it for 10L inorder to compeet.. And that again means alot of good stuff that would have been made is not made..
In my oppion they ruined mp even more with making it possible to sell from inventory, plus the negative effect it has had inworld regarding many shops and land rent...

But of course, i may be all wrong.. :-))

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Perrie Juran wrote:

 

 I did expect a dip after the announcement but if there really was one I can't see it.

 

This is exactly what I'm trying to get at - why did you expect a dip?   I suppose it's for the same reasons I wrote this thread.  A dip or a raise must occur, economics 101.  When, and how much?  

 

 

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Amethyst Jetaime wrote:

First it is not SL2.  It will be (if it works) an entirely different world so it should be called the new world or grid.  It won't even be named SL.

 

Everything you said is pretty much unfounded speculation. 

Tell me Amethyst, what insight do you have that you know what the new platform will or won't be named?  You are writing snark and petty symantics.  

I said nothing that leads to speculation.  The Ceo said there will be a new platform and I want to discuss the impact of the new platform on the value of the L.  If my question is too much for you to directly speak to then try not replying at all.  

 

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DejaHo wrote:


Perrie Juran wrote:

 

 I did expect a dip after the announcement but if there really was one I can't see it.

 

This is exactly what I'm trying to get at - why did you expect a dip?  

 

 

I expected a dip because I did not think things through all the way.  Part of that was I forgot that the naysayers and the number of people who actually would leave SL right at the time of the announcement  is really a microscopic percentage. 

 


DejaHo wrote:


  A dip or a raise must occur, economics 101.  When, and how much?  

 

 

If it occurs I think it will be when the Beta goes live.  Because that is when the reality will hit people. 

Another big influence will be the Economic Model when it is decided:  Land Prices and the cost of doing business (Merchant Fees), etc.  My personal opinion is that they cannot make the New World more expensive overall.  It's a value for your dollar issue.  But that is something I could be very wrong about.

How much is also another hard thing to judge.  That could be greatly affected by initial reports from people in the Beta testing and the Economic Model when it is announced.  Thankfully not all the Bloggers are ass lickers.  If major issues are fixed, for instance seamless SIM crossings, there  are many people who will gladly migrate.

Still, I am not greatly concerned about all of this.  The investors are dedicating cold hard cash to this whole thing.  If in order to succeed they need to take steps to bolster the Economy I believe that they will.  That is part of the nature of Venture Capitalists.  They don't necessarily expect their ROI the next day. 

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DejaHo wrote:

This is exactly what I'm trying to get at - why did you expect a dip?   I suppose it's for the same reasons I wrote this thread.  A dip or a raise must occur, economics 101.  When, and how much?  

This may be why members of the Council of Economic Advisors generally take another course after Econ 101.

The L$ supply is even more tightly managed than M1, with more awesomely powerful levers than mere Quantitative Easing.

We know that LL sells L$s on the LindeX to prevent the value from climbing much beyond a target of about L$250/US$. Years ago, we even knew how many L$s they sold, but not anymore.

There are also substantial "sinks" in the L$ supply -- processes that destroy L$s, such as upload fees, that generate demand to replenish the L$ supply even when the SL economy is shrinking. Years ago, we even knew how large these sinks were, but not anymore.

From that past data, and from prudent business practices, we can be pretty sure that LL never buys L$s.

Hence, although we may no longer know exactly how large L$ sources and sinks are these days, we can safely assume that the sinks are huge, and that under normal circumstances, LL is selling a lot of L$s into the LindeX. We can assume all that on the evidence of years and years of a flat exchange rate, very rarely even noticeably perturbed by any amount of bad news that might otherwise erode the L$'s value.

Simply put, there must be a very fat cushion of L$ sinks that prevent the value from falling, otherwise it would have fluctuated more in the past. The rock-steadiness of the L$ through the whole cycle of this latest news is further evidence of just how big that cushion must be.

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Perrie Juran wrote:

ETA, when Ebbe originally spoke of greater Transparency, I don't think he meant opening Linden Lab's  books to public scrutiny.

 

 

 

I didn't think he meant that either. I think he meant that LL would actually announce things they were planning, and that from time to time a Linden would comment directly to various online blogs and forums, including this one.

As opposed to the absence of that kind of communication for the prior couple of years.

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