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SL2 and potential losses - the facts


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I believe they have always been in the land business for virtual land,,

anyone remember land being free other than a 512 which came with a premium membership?

This world didn't expand because of free,It expanded with the land growth.

it will not proft anymore when that shrinks so far.

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Fact is what we know, and we don´t know anything except that the "next generation" thing will run on "more platforms" and that SL content will be not compatible.

"More platforms" certainly will include mobile devices, otherwise the term "next generation" would be absurd. Now look at what runs on tablets and smartphones and how, due to the technical limitations there.

"Betterworld", most probably, will be nothing but a strictly simplified Second Life, which will be a lot easier to use and to access, but it will lack almost everything of the rich content and community life Second Life has to offer once it goes online.

I don´t mind if Linden Lab starts another attempt to expand their business. But so far all their attempts failed more or less, and judging by the records this attempt will turn out to be just another DOA failure. No need to worry. Business as usual.

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Personally I am looking forward to the new world.  However, what you said is just your personal opinion.  I agree with some of it but not all.  In the end, what you say doesn't matter.  What matters is how each person feels about about their personal losses, if they migrate, and how many will be willing to migrate.

You say everyone has had the enjoyment of their stuff and got their monies worth and they should just suck it up.  It's not that simple.  There are a lot of people that can't afford to replace their inventory except very gradually.

We all know that SL will die eventually, even if there is no new LL world.  It is just a matter of how long it will continue.  I think that it will take many years for a large percent of the population to migrate permanently.  In the meantime people will continue to use SL and just visit the new world until enough content is available and they've had the time to build their inventory up to the point they feel comfortable.  Even then I think there will be a lot of back and forth until LL pulls the plug on SL, and if they do that too soon they risk losing a lot of customers. 

No one is being selfish that wants to hold on to SL as long as they can.  LL is a for profit company not a charity.  It is up to them to make the new world attractive enough to make people not mind losing their stuff if they migrate, if they want a quicker migration.  It is up to their customers to decide where they want to be and what they are willing to give up to migrate.

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Vivienne Schell wrote:

Fact is what we know, and we don´t know anything except that the "next generation" thing will run on "more platforms" and that SL content will be not compatible.

"More platforms" certainly will include mobile devices, otherwise the term "next generation" would be absurd. Now look at what runs on tablets and smartphones and how, due to the technical limitations there.

"Betterworld", most probably, will be nothing but a strictly simplified Second Life, which will be a lot easier to use and to access, but it will lack almost everything of the rich content and community life Second Life has to offer once it goes online.

I don´t mind if Linden Lab starts another attempt to expand their business. But so far all their attempts failed more or less, and judging by the records this attempt will turn out to be just another DOA failure. No need to worry. Business as usual.

I'm not worried a bit,it's thier money hehehehe

Also this is Ebbe's first try here,so i'm game.:smileywink:

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Well I am one of those earlish people June 2004 rezdate. No one owes me any thanks at all. I came and stayed because world  building was an absolute blast. SL was just so darn interesting and different from anything out there. It sort of sucked you in.

I do regret not getting the lifetime deal when I had the chance but money was so tight back then. I have been premium continuously since the end of my first week in SL though. ;)

As for the new platform. I find it bittersweet. SL has been home for so very long and it is always tough to say goodbye to home. At the same time I am really excited for the opportunity to world build again and see what rabbits LL has pulled out of their hats.

As for 10 years worth of stuff? WHo cares maybe I will be able to find something in my inventory.

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Puts on the programmer hat and german programmer pants. Ya, you can convert sculpties, prims and current mesh to mesh of other kinds. In theory this could be programmed UNLESS they choose a very propriatory format that either LL has made, modified or is made by a 3D software maker that they choose to use more or less exclusively and basically choose a format that open source or various competing softwares can open.

They will dev it and test it with uploads made in something, most likely Maya or 3Ds Max. If they choose certain formats that are hard or impossible for non-what-they-tested-with-and-chose format than, well...they block out easy conversion.

But, as it stands a scultpie can be imported using Domino and Giaiaa..ai..h...?Ok, I can't spell her name right now. But, yeah Primstar or JASS imported sculpties, right?

Prims. Well, an open source project for blender exists that build prims. Modified and a modified veiwer with whatever export funcitons it has allows you to export your creations.

AH HAHAH!, Poenald...what about customers!?" Of course you just give ALL previous and present customers a copy in the other world to! Yes, you don't get paid enough and may not do it. But, those who do feel inclined, for money or for the pride and joy of it all will do it and gain smiles and happiness for thier customers. Maybe more sales down the road, loyalty increases. Heck, I have seen people pour out thier love, donate money and so on to help another SLer get treatment. In fact, you could ask your customers to spend some of thier spending on charity donations to RL charities (even ones that have a presence here) because they have cool new worlds AND stuff from you so will maybe be inclined to spend less.

You can literally save the world a tiny bit, and coders may appreciate donations and purchases of thier convertion tools that will at least partially help (already, you can export prims and isn't their sculptstudio guys meshstudio or wahtever he called it? So, yeah between Primstar and Domino Marama's other works and teh sculptstudio guys software you get prims, suclpts and they convert into mesh. You can convert your dae files to the newer whatever file they choose, hopefully. LOTS can be lost in this transaltion UNLESS coders step up and help with this.

I am not programmer enough to do it. Some of it is propriatory and possibly requiring lots of work I am slightly clueless about. Dae is most likely the way to go, but if you enhance it you might make things a bit better. Plus, what about voxels? So, who knows what will happen. If they say some of it may transfer, I imagine that means they will mod the .dae file format to fit whatever new features they want and there seems to be people working on that for blender, so maybe try ot support them. That is what I will try to do a bit here, by mentioning that there are PEOPLE who work on these things and some may want help, donation or maybe a drink and a pat on the back...others may not want anything though, so find out I guess by looking around about it. But, yeah....support them and maybe even become a programmer yourself. I learned a bit, and I am a mess and am some what restricted.

 

easier said that done, BUT doable and desirable for the SL creator who wants to build a loyal customer base....if that is possible. Hhhhm, to the merchant forum for me, with a new question.

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Reminder

The only points I am making in this thread are:-

1. LL *has* to come up with the next generation platform for its own future prosperity.

2. People won't lose the money they've put into SL if and when SL closes, simply because we spend the money on the enjoyment we have in SL. That's what it's spent for - enjoyment (a hobby/passtime), and we got the enjoyment for it. The money has already been used. It's gone. Whether it be new shoes, dress, skin, house, land, whatever, the money was spent to enjoy those things and the enjoyment was had. Mostly it was extremely cheap enjoyment too; e.g. a few cents for a piece of furniture.

To those who find that hard to accept, stop spending now. Then you'll have 2, 3, 4 or more years to get all the enjoyment you paid for out of the things you've already bought. And that's a long long time.

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"To those who find that hard to accept, stop spending now. Then you'll have 2, 3, 4 or more years to get all the enjoyment you paid for out of the things you've already bought. And that's a long long time."


Rubbish. If only a quarter of the existing user customer base would follow your advice SL would be dead before the "better" "next generation" wishiwashi promise would even see the beta light. I´m not talking about the freeloaders and the ones spending a few dollars  - as you obviously do -, I talk about the people who spend thousands of dollars a year on sims and whatsoever.

"LL *has* to come up with the next generation platform for its own future prosperity."

LL has come up with a big bubble made of hot air so far. And if they really "MUST" come up with a so-called "next generation" "platform" (whatever this is, maybe it´s a Ford T model) is questionable anyway. It´s corporate gamble, and neither you nor me are involved, it´s all about business plans and profits. The board cares about dollars, not Second Life. Most likely some major investors fell for just another shiny "promising" tech hoax presented by another silicon valley born geek "visionary" for "conquering the mass market".

 

 

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I'm having trouble with the apparent definition of "losses" here.

Somewhere you limit it to "out of pocket" losses, which seems weirdly narrow -- it almost defines-away the problem or narrows it to the kind of mishap for which there are insurance policies. Well, even narrower, inasmuch as people routinely insure future cash flows (crops, a famous pianist's hands, etc.)

It's certainly true that it's been quite a few years since anybody sensible "invested" in SL with a realistic expectation of generating returns from that investment. But it certainly did happen, back in Anshe's day, for example. The kind of outlays that she and her investors made back then were not for immediate "enjoyment" and would amount to very substantial losses were they insane enough to do the same today.

Similarly, the Lab is now demanding that anybody who wants to run "skill games" must invest funds in amounts I think vastly underestimated by most posters -- at least tens of thousands of US$s, in my reading of the requirements. Now, one can hope that there's nobody deluded enough to actually make that investment, but I think that would be a false hope. So suppose some fool does so... how long must LL keep this grid open before parting that fool from his money would no longer qualify as a "loss"?

(At root, I don't think this kind of "loss" is very interesting, nor really germane to the situation. The issue in my mind is whether the very disruptive change of SL2 is most likely to lead to the best outcome. I've come around to believing that it probably is, only because the number of incompatible changes they need to make to have a platform viable for the future would be more disruptive if they made them in SL1, obsoleting great chunks of people's inventory from one login to the next. But that's not necessarily true. It's by no means a foregone conclusion that they couldn't get to the same place, spending less development costs, by drastic migration of the existing platform, rather than developing a whole different one from scratch.)

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Vivienne Schell wrote:

"To those who find that hard to accept, stop spending now. Then you'll have 2, 3, 4 or more years to get all the enjoyment you paid for out of the things you've already bought. And that's a long long time."

 

Rubbish. If only a quarter of the existing user customer base would follow your advice SL would be dead before the "better" "next generation" wishiwashi promise would even see the beta light. I´m not talking about the freeloaders and the ones spending a few dollars  - as you obviously do -, I talk about the people who spend thousands of dollars a year on sims and whatsoever.

Ah, but nowhere near a quarter of people would do it, would they? Almost everyone knows that what they're spending, they are spending to enjoy now. That's the whole point.

I don't spend just "a few dollars". I don't spend anything. I take it out, for goodness sakes, and always have done.

And people don't spend thousands of dollars every year on sims. They spend thousands of dollars every year on tier for sims, but each payment only lasts for a month, and when the month is up, the tier money is used up. Tier is never seen as any sort of investment, because you don't get to keep anything for it, so it can't be lost if and when SL shuts down.

"LL *has* to come up with the next generation platform for its own future prosperity."

LL has come up with a big bubble made of hot air so far. And if they really "MUST" come up with a so-called "next generation" "platform" (whatever this is, maybe it´s a Ford T model) is questionable anyway. It´s corporate gamble, and neither you nor me are involved, it´s all about business plans and profits. The board cares about dollars, not Second Life. Most likely some major investors fell for just another shiny "promising" tech hoax presented by another silicon valley born geek "visionary" for "conquering the mass market".

Of course it's all about "business plans and profits". That's what businesses are in business for. Nobody objects to LL being a business, do they?

 

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Qie Niangao wrote:

I'm having trouble with the apparent definition of "losses" here.

Somewhere you limit it to "out of pocket" losses, which seems weirdly narrow -- it almost defines-away the problem or narrows it to the kind of mishap for which there are insurance policies. Well, even narrower, inasmuch as people routinely insure
future
cash flows (crops, a famous pianist's hands, etc.)

Some people have posted about the thousands of dollars they have put into SL, and that it will all be lost when SL2 comes along. I'm showing why it won't be lost because they spent the money on enjoyment as a passtime/hobby. I used the phrase 'out of pocket' in an attempt to signify that the money they spent will have been used up in the hobby/passtime, so there won't a store of it to be lost when the time comes.

You pay to watch film. When you've seen it, you don't stop and think that you put money into watching that film but they won't let you see it again. You accept that what you paid to watch was used up when you watched it, and you won't lose anything because they won't let you watch it again.

It's true that what we buy in SL is usually represented by something rezzed or in our inventories, and it's useable over and over again. But that fact doesn't mean a financial loss when we can no longer use it. That's the point I'm making. People don't consider it a financial loss when they've spent plenty on shoes that used invisiprims, and mesh shoes came along. They went over the mesh shoes and they'll never use the invisiprim shoes again, but they don't think of it a financial loss - because they got their money's worth of enjoyment/hobby/passtime out of them.

It's certainly true that it's been quite a few years since anybody sensible "invested" in SL with a realistic expectation of generating returns from that investment. But it certainly did happen, back in Anshe's day, for example. The kind of outlays that she and her investors made back then were not for immediate "enjoyment" and would amount to very substantial losses were they insane enough to do the same today.

Anyone like Anshe has already made a pile from the investments, so they'll suffer no financial at all. They're income will cease, of course, and that could be considered future losses, but they don't have the future income so that's not an out-of-pocket loss.

Similarly, the Lab is now demanding that anybody who wants to run "skill games" must invest funds in amounts I think vastly underestimated by most posters --
at least
tens of thousands of US$s, in my reading of the requirements. Now, one can hope that there's nobody deluded enough to actually make that investment, but I think that would be a false hope. So suppose some fool does so... how long must LL keep this grid open before parting that fool from his money would no longer qualify as a "loss"?

That's quite different, of course. If anyone puts money into skill games now, they know the time is limited, so, if they suffer a financial loss because of it, they did it with their eyes open.

(At root, I don't think this kind of "loss" is very interesting, nor really germane to the situation. The issue in my mind is whether the very disruptive change of SL2 is most likely to lead to the best outcome. I've come around to believing that it probably is, only because the number of incompatible changes they need to make to have a platform viable for the future would be
more
disruptive if they made them in SL1, obsoleting great chunks of people's inventory from one login to the next. But that's
not necessarily
 true. It's by no means a foregone conclusion that they couldn't get to the same place, spending less development costs, by drastic migration of the existing platform, rather than developing a whole different one from scratch.)

If you put money in, and not all of it was used, but then the system closed so that you couldn't use what was left, then you would have suffered a financial loss. That's not going to happen. There will be no unused money, and there will be no 'stuff' (objects, land, etc.) that the owner hasn't had their money's worth out of.

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Vivienne Schell wrote:

"I' don't spend just "a few dollars". I don't spend anything. I take it out, for goodness sakes."

Wonderful. No wonders that Linden Lab, being a business, tries to get rid of you.

I'm not aware that they're trying to get rid of me. How are they going about it?

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Phil Deakins wrote:

If you put money in, and not all of it was used, but then the system closed so that you couldn't use what was left, then you would have suffered a financial loss. That's not going to happen. There will be no unused money, and there will be no 'stuff' (objects, land, etc.) that the owner hasn't had their money's worth out of.

Yeah, I get it that this is your belief, and if LL shouts to the rooftops that SL1 is closing Real Soon Now, then it will be true -- nobody will be foolish enough to spend anything in SL that they won't get all the entertainment value from immediately.

Of course, the more that's known, the more the economy in SL changes. I mean, I routinely used to buy copiable high-end landscaping stuff with the intention of using it for a long time in a lot of places, and historically that's worked out well, but now I rather regret some recent purchases that I'd have been much, much better off buying the less expensive no-copy versions because I'll never get to amortize those costs over anything like the number of copies I'd expected at time of purchase.

Instead of buying longer-term stuff like plants, prefabs, and furniture, then, we should shift our spending to hookers and blow.

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Qie Niangao wrote:


Phil Deakins wrote:

If you put money in, and not all of it was used, but then the system closed so that you couldn't use what was left, then you would have suffered a financial loss. That's not going to happen. There will be no unused money, and there will be no 'stuff' (objects, land, etc.) that the owner hasn't had their money's worth out of.

Yeah, I get it that this is your belief, and if LL shouts to the rooftops that SL1 is closing Real Soon Now, then it will be true -- nobody will be foolish enough to spend anything in SL that they won't get all the entertainment value from immediately.

Of course, the more that's known, the more the economy in SL changes. I mean, I routinely used to buy copiable high-end landscaping stuff with the intention of using it for a long time in a lot of places, and historically that's worked out well, but now I rather regret some recent purchases that I'd have been much,
much
better off buying the less expensive no-copy versions because I'll never get to amortize those costs over anything like the number of copies I'd expected at time of purchase.

Instead of buying longer-term stuff like plants, prefabs, and furniture, then, we should shift our spending to hookers and blow
.

We can get together and for sessions :D

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Sassy Romano wrote:

Yes LL needs to remain leader but only from their perspective. The user can just go to the latest and greatest, it doesn't have to be a product of LL.


We also benefit if Linden Lab remains the leader.

 

Look at the MMO world since 2012. There are now as many people NOT playing world of warcraft as those who are... But no one has topped the old beast. What has happened is they have split into smaller communities across a half dozen platforms and the ability to have consensus is gone. As WOW slowly fades over the next few years no one will ever replace it.

 

Not so bad for video games.

 

But for worlds of shared user content and diverse communities, if we fragment we will never again have the creative mass ability we have now.

Another company will be able to someday take 20-30% of us by offering better... But only LL can carry the innertia forward from itself to itself and take 50-80% of us to the same place as each other.

If they don't do this first, virtual worlds will fragment into a dozen no longer communicating isolated platforms.

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That argument doesn't follow.

There's no reason that *only* LL can carry inertia forward.  They can royally screw up just as well as anyone.
  If an alternate that offers better comes along and takes 50-80% of the current SL user base, that's the same effect in terms of maintaining the largest user base but it doesn't have to be LL nor does it therefore follow that we benefit anymore if it is LL or another.

What does follow is that the benefit is where the largest user base is and better if they're all in one place (or even better, inter-compatible places)

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Parrish Ashbourne wrote:

There's no reason not to use both platforms. The new world will be new and exciting to explore to see whats new, and the old one familiar and filed with the things we all ready own.  I see it like going on vacation then comming back home.

exactly this....in fact when the new world gets going, i think we should have notices in the original world of things to do in the new world - maybe an interworld newspaper? they can definitely coexist, and ebbe has said over and over they have no plans to get rid of SL i'm looking forward to checking the new place out and seeing what i can do there, but SL is my home, until they can prove the new world is actually 'better'...whatever that means :)

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I haven't followed this thread, so I'm sure I'm missing ideas that are being tossed about, but I agree that there's no reason to think that LL is in some superior position to move forward. Fifty years from now, I don't imagine many will remember SL. Whatever we're doing together virtually by then will be unrecognizable to us now. The potential for technological disruption is increasing, not decreasing.

Ebbe knows this. He's not pushing ahead to SL2 because he thinks he's in a superior position to do so, but because he knows SL1 is in an inferior position.

The nature of disruption is that it generally does NOT come from within. For that reason, I cannot dismiss the possibility that LL's familarity with SL is a disadvantage.

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Phil Deakins wrote:

I don't spend just "a few dollars". I don't spend anything. I take it out, for goodness sakes, and always have done.

_______________________________________________________________________________

Phil, I don't know what you do in SL but I am guessing you are operating some business in order for you to make that statement above. 

It does come over rather pompous to say that you don't spend your own money in SL but that you rely on others to spend theirs in order that you can "take it out" 

If everyone was not spending and just taking L$ the SL economy would collapse. So lets show some appreciation and respect to consumers thoughts and feelings. Even if we don't agree. 

I think your view that people who are spending money on virtual goods
know
it's just for entertainment purposes in the "here and now" is naive, to say the least.

But I hope for your own sake, your customers share that same view point so you can continue to "Take it out" 

Based on my experience of both buying and selling in virtual worlds since 2003 (There.com) and since 2004 (SL) I believe the vast majority of people do feel a sense of ownership when they exchange their real money for virtual content.

I have witnessed and argued with countless people in relation to textures who think they have purchased them so they "own" them.  
The concept of a "User License" has been a very hard concept to push and people have resisted it.

Only recently have people started to understand that they don't "own" licensed goods, they simply purchased the license to use it in accordance to the T&S of the User License they purchased said goods for. 

Of course, the above is specific to textures and licensing but I can assure you there is most definitely a sense of "ownership" from a customers POV in relation to purchasing virtual goods regardless of whether its textures, clothing, hair, animations etc.

And its this sense of "ownership" that causes upset and anger when those spending customers are told they cannot export those virtual goods to other grids or new worlds.

Its not a new concept of behaviour or thought either. If we look at the various grids and SL spin offs that oepned over the recent years, we all witnessed people who were frustrated and indeed ANGERED that the clothes, hair, etc etc they purchased in SL could not be exported due to the permissions set. Permissions that they accepted at the time of purchase but that did not suit their requirement at a later date. 

They resented "starting over" in new grids because from their POV they had already paid real money for the full and extensive inventory they have grown within SL. They would complain about how merchants were being mean by not allowing them full perms to export "their" stuff out of SL. 

It doesn't matter whether their anger or frustration is valid or reasonable to you or me. The fact is, the vast majority of people DO feel that way about the virtual goods they have paid for and currently live in their SL inventory. 

EDIT - After thought.

Perhaps because, by your own admission, you have never been a consumer and spent money in SL and have only earned it that you are unable or unwilling to empathise with consumers. (?) 

 

 

 

 

 

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My replies are in brown :)


LillyBeth Filth wrote:

Phil Deakins wrote:

I don't spend just "a few dollars". I don't spend anything. I take it out, for goodness sakes, and always have done.

_______________________________________________________________________________

Phil, I don't know what you do in SL but I am guessing you are operating some business in order for you to make that statement above. 

That's correct, Lilybeth.

It does come over rather pompous to say that you don't spend your own money in SL but that you rely on others to spend theirs in order that you can "take it out" 

I don't mind being seen as pompous, although I'm not altogether sure that that's the right word. A lot of people herre have known me (in the forum) through many years. They know i can be stubborn and argumentative on certain topics, and I'm sure they see some positive qualities in me too. There are a few who don't - just a few - but they are those who have a negative agenda here.

If everyone was not spending and just taking L$ the SL economy would collapse. So lets show some appreciation and respect to consumers thoughts and feelings. Even if we don't agree. 

I haven't shown any disrespect to anyone in these SL2 discussions. At least i don't think I have. In this thread, I've just posted about the matter-of-fact situation, by explaining why nobody will lose when SL2 comes along. In a nutshell, it's because what we've spent in SL, we've spent on enjoyment of SL - a hobby - and we have a minimum of 2 years notice to get all the enjoyment we can out of it. Nobody will be short-changed by SL2.

I think your view that people who are spending money on virtual goods
know
it's just for entertainment purposes in the "here and now" is naive, to say the least.

You can think it's naive, but it's nonetheless true. Ask anyone if they think that the SL we have now will still be aound in 50 years time, and they'll say no. That's an extreme, of course, but it makes the point. Nobody expects what they spend in SL now to last a very long time.

But I hope for your own sake, your customers share that same view point so you can continue to "Take it out" 

Don't be concerned for me, Lilybeth. I've been letting my business run down for 3½ years already and it's still earning. It won't be much longer though, and it's my own choice.

Based on my experience of both buying and selling in virtual worlds since 2003 (There.com) and since 2004 (SL) I believe the vast majority of people do feel a sense of ownership when they exchange their real money for virtual content.

Of course we do, but how long do we expect what we spend today to actually last us? How long will you want to wear the dress or shoes you buy today? How long do you want to live in the house you have today? Will you continue using today's dance animation when it because dated and old hat?

I have witnessed and argued with countless people in relation to textures who think they have purchased them so they "own" them.  
The concept of a "User License" has been a very hard concept to push and people have resisted it.

Only recently have people started to understand that they don't "own" licensed goods, they simply purchased the license to use it in accordance to the T&S of the User License they purchased said goods for. 

Of course, the above is specific to textures and licensing but I can assure you there is most definitely a sense of "ownership" from a customers POV in relation to purchasing virtual goods regardless of whether its textures, clothing, hair, animations etc.

And its this sense of "ownership" that causes upset and anger when those spending customers are told they cannot export those virtual goods to other grids or new worlds.

We don't yet know what will go over to SL2. But even if nothing goes over, we will have had good long-term use out of our stuff, and for a comparitive pittance.

Its not a new concept of behaviour or thought either. If we look at the various grids and SL spin offs that oepned over the recent years, we all witnessed people who were frustrated and indeed ANGERED that the clothes, hair, etc etc they purchased in SL could not be exported due to the permissions set. Permissions that they accepted at the time of purchase but that did not suit their requirement at a later date. 

They resented "starting over" in new grids because from their POV they had already paid real money for the full and extensive inventory they have grown within SL. They would complain about how merchants were being mean by not allowing them full perms to export "their" stuff out of SL. 

It doesn't matter whether their anger or frustration is valid or reasonable to you or me. The fact is, the vast majority of people DO feel that way about the virtual goods they have paid for and currently live in their SL inventory. 

Yes we do. All I've tried to do is explain why it's not really a realistic point of view.

EDIT - After thought.

Perhaps because, by your own admission, you have never been a consumer and spent money in SL and have only earned it that you are unable or unwilling to empathise with consumers. (?)

It's not that I don't or can't empathise with overall consumers. I'm merely stating things as they are. I've written more than once that I understand the disappointment, etc. that will be felt if and when a person leaves their stuff behind. I will also be disappointed if I'm still around. I've paid for stuff too and I still have my purchases in my inventory - and I still use a few.

Note: Some of those who say they've spend thousands of dollars in SL, and are annoyed that they won't be able take it with them, include tier. That's where some people's thousands of dollars built up. But tier only lasts a month and then it's gone forever. So counting that as a loss is nonsense.

Let's have a look at perhaps a typical SL user who actually puts money in. She wants a home, so she buys or rents a piece of land. Then she buys a house and furnishes it. She buys clothes too. Perhaps she buys some dance animations too. That's about it. I think the rest is just trimmings - tips and such. The cost of the land counts. The tier for it only lasts a month so it doesn't count. She probably changed the house along the way but her current house counts  but not houses she bought in the past.The clothes she bought a year ago and longer are no longer used because she's bought more clothes which she now uses. It's probable that her old clothes are system ones and her newer clothes are mesh. So the newer ones count and the older ones don't count because they don't get used any more. The dance animations count because she keeps on using them - certainly the newer ones, anyway. Tips and such are gone as soon as they are given, so they don't count.

What are we left with that actually counts? The original cost of the land, the current house, the newer wardrone (clothes), and the animations. How much did it all cost? Thousands of L$. How much use has she had out of it all? By the time SL2 comes along, it will be years for some things and many years for others. A thousand L$ = US$4 approximatly. If the stuff cost 10kL$, that's US$40. If it cost 20kL$, it's US$80, and so on. It's very cheap for several years of hobby/pleaure/entertainment, isn't it? Even if the money is spent right now - today - on everything - there's still at least 2 years of use out of it all, and almost certainly longer. It's a cheap hobby, isn't it?

I don't need to be an overall consumer to recognise that. It just is.

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Sassy Romano wrote:

That argument doesn't follow.

There's no reason that *only* LL can carry inertia forward.  They can royally screw up just as well as anyone.

  If an alternate that offes better comes along and takes 50-80% of the current SL user base, that's the same effect in terms of maintaining the largest user base but it doesn't have to be LL

What does follow is that the benefit is where the largest user base is and better if they're all in one place (or even better, inter-compatible places)

If its not LL then many will not follow due to community. The same effect as with WoW in MMOs. Vastly superior products exist that should take 80-100% of users but they don't because most people don't generally jump alone... they won't abandon a community. Stragglers leap, early adopters leap, but the masses stay put. The masses will only go if the jump looks safe - if the platforms have some connection somehow that makes it easy to keep community intact.

 

So each of them only grabs a fragment, leaving time and space for another to grab a fragment, but no consensus evolves.

 

Community gets split.

LL will be able to be a safe leap, able to get 70, 80, 90%, or more to leap together.

Just look at WoW in MMOs. Competitors simply being better on every possible metric to measure has not killed that old beast because community is important.

 

If all it took was being the best technology everyone here would be using the official viewer. So you all know what I am saying on one level, when it comes to comfort. That's another aspect that matters... and look at how viewers fragmented because LL was LAST to getting its viewer UI sorted... so even though the official viewer has the best engine under the hood, and a good UI to some... it was too slow and people fragmented to a dozen different UIs and we no longer have creative consensus. Imagine how much worse that could be if these were not just different viewers that can at least share solutions... but different virtual worlds in total isolation from each other.

It has to be LL... or SL itself will be the beast of innertia that causes us to all go in different directions over time, just as happened with WoW.

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