Will Second Life still be around 10 years from now?

[Charli Infinity]

Will it?

or when do you think Second Life will "end" maybe because Linden Lab ends it or no one logs in anymore

Been thinking about this :matte-motes-delicious:

What do you think? When and why?

Discuss

[Charli Infinity]

Oh on wikipedia it's says second life was launched in June 2003 so this year will be second life's 10th birthday!!

Congrats SL! One decade anniversary coming up!!

[Storm Clarence]

Will SL be viable in twenty twentythree?  Literally, a quarter way into the 21st century deploying software written at the end of the 20th century does not hold too much promise, imo.  

 

[Phil Deakins]

No - imo.

[Penny Patton]

I suspect that as long as there are no competitve alternatives to draw people away from SL, it will remain active. Inevitably, it will no longer be able to retain enough users to keep LL in the black, but that is quite a few years down the road.

Fact is, since SL's inception there have been no real competitive alternatives.

Companies have tried to provide an alternative, but every single one has had a glaring flaw in their business strategy, crippling the very features which make SL succeed despite its flaws.

A successful virtual world needs three things.

An avatar which can be easily, and thoroughly, personalized. The way SL handles this could be greatly improved, but so far no virtual world alternative has managed to provide as much as SL has in terms of avatar personalization.

Unrestricted content creation. Letting the users create anything and own the content they create is absolutely necessary. Every other attempt at a competing virtual world has locked down user created content, making their entire attempt to muscle in on the virtual world market a non-starter.

An economy. Content creators can continue to pay tier in SL because they can sell their creations and use that money to cover costs. Land barons rent private estates at a profit. If SL did not provide this ability to cover your SL expenses with in-world transactions, the grid would be much, much smaller than it is today.

 

One more thing a would-be competitor needs is a clear advantage to entice people to join up. SL users have SL. Most other people have tried SL and found it wanting. If a new virtual world wants to actually draw in customers they need to show a clear superiority to SL or they will get neither of these groups of people.

 

There is a hunger for virtual worlds. People love them. Videogames are very much related, and most people are perfectly happy with them, but there is that desire for a virtual environment where you can literally do or be anything, express yourself through your avatar or the environments you build, meet people and share creations.

 Until something comes along that scratches that itch better than SL, Linden Lab will have a captive audience. That is likely to keep SL around for a very long time.

[Czari Zenovka]

A similar discussion was held here awhile back.  That thread only prognosticated out until 2014, but I would imagine the discussions would be similar.

[Peggy Paperdoll]

I got to go with Penny Patton's assessment.  And I'll go a bit further.  I do think Second Life will be around 10 years from now (maybe twice that long).  Right now LL has no serious competition which, naturally, makes SL the strongest contender for the virtual world hunger that is out there wanting attention.  But I'm also going to say that someone will finally come up with a virtual world that puts pressure on LL to compete.......compete aggressively for that audience.  10 years ago SL appealed to a very small niche group and it's taken these last 10 years to slowly (very slowly) gain greater interest.  For 10 years (and still today) the vast majority of people giving SL a try were gamers (or people interested in games).  It's the perception the general population has of virtual worlds.  Those who came to SL with the idea it was a game were disappointed and most left after just a few hours.  The retention rate was (and still is) very small.  Only the niche group remained and that niche is a very small percentage of the population who might be interested in an SL type of virtual world.  LL tried many different ways to change that perception of what a virtual should be (should be according to Philip Linden....not what it should be according to the generally accepted definition of a virtual world).  The online games created that perception years ago and once something is perceived one way it's a very difficult task to change it.

It's taken 10 years for LL to start changing what people think SL is......but not by much.  At least some people are coming to SL without expecting a predetermined notion that it's a game.  Generally once perceptions start to change others start developing on the idea to compete (that's why so many potential competitors have tried and failed).  There will be a competitor in a few years (maybe next week, who knows) that will put pressure on SL and that will grow it's base much more rapidly........which puts SL squarely in the eyes of the general population.  But SL is still going to have the advantage of being the "standard" of virtual worlds (whether or not they deserve that stature is irrelevant.......Microsoft is and will continue to be for a very long time the standard of home computers).  SL will gain a robust portion of the virtual world population and, therefore, very profitable. 

Then after some time at the top of the heap, historically they'll start to fade and someone else will come along and take the top slot.  However, by the time SL even gets into serious competition (and we all get the benefit of competition) it's going to change........and probably change a lot.  It won't be redesigned (as it eventually needs to be) until LL has to spend that time and effort but to keep the competition at bay for as long as they can, they will change.  Most of us old timers are going to resist that change and many will leave but the new users will replace us in numbers greater than the decline.  I think that will start the day someone else jumps in with a serious virtual world that improves on SL as it is at the moment.  It's going be rough for both the users and LL.  I know many think LL (as a company) are short sighted and, even, stupid but I've been hearing those same statements since the day I joined (and that was from some of the original members who joined SL on day one).  LL is still here and vastly different in so many ways.  When I first joined you couldn't even TP to many places.  Flying was an adventure since crossing sim boundaries almost always sent to off-world or to 10.10.10 and the only solution was to re-log.  Walking across boundaries wasn't much better.  Those problems are almost non-existant now.  We didn't  have flexible prims, no sculpties (and mesh was something only the professional 3D modelers knew about).

It's going to fun........if I survive the changes.    It'll be here though.

[Storm Clarence]

I think the virtual world is seriously threatened by 3D printing and other nifty technologies.  In a few years we will be able to print an entire 3D sim and 'electronic grid' on the kitchen table.  Other technology will allow us to operate and communicate with these 3D prints e.g., a 3D avatar/figure)... while other technologies (bandwidth/cams) will provide visual access to the printed grid so that your friends list can join you.   Exciting stuff is already here, now it up to some imaginative people to put it into play.   The sex industry will probably be the first to... 

 

[Lucretia Brandenburg]

If four private sims poof, LL can retire that server. Not a break even situation but overhead is cut down and it's not clear whether that is a serious loss in revenue or not, or whether the revenue is being made up in other ways. I think if LL were seriusly concerned about private regions poofing and the lost revenue, they would lower the tiers on them a bit.

[Charli Infinity]

Next year?...:matte-motes-shocked:

[Toy String]

IMHO the technology is dead, at least for now. Just go to a really crowded place, you won't even be able to move.

[Deja Letov]

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Charli Infinity wrote:

Will it?

or when do you think Second Life will "end" maybe because Linden Lab ends it or no one logs in anymore

Been thinking about this :matte-motes-delicious:

What do you think? When and why?

Discuss

---

I would like it to be around in 10 years, but I'm not so sure it will be.

[Peggy Paperdoll]

That is the product of what SL is.  User created content and real time ever changing 3D graphics is part of what makes SL unique......and, at least, a very large part of the attraction.  It's an issue that LL is slowly gaining on........competition will speed the fix up considerably.  I'm sure the problem can be fixed......when someone figures it out, be it LL or some competitor, the technology will really take off.

[Toy String]

I agree. I love the idea, it worked for some time, some years ago. And I'm sure there will be someone who gets it right, will it be LL or someone other. But for now in its current shape... Probably not.

[Charli Infinity]

The vision of virtual worlds can't just die can it? A place where people can be anything and build their own world.

I've always imagined we would have something like 

that'll give a 3d view the virtual world and maybe a motion controller like kinect so we can actually walk into and see the virtual world as if with our own bodies. Linden Lab shouldn't stop developing SL they have a head start in creating a virtual world where people can just make anything themselves unlike online games where things are pre-made.

There must be some sort of fully immersive virtual world in the future. People are just getting so connected to technology and gadgets.

 

[Charli Infinity]

Is Second Life even profitable for Linden Lab now? I saw ads on the top of my dashboard page. Was it always there? Or is Linden Lab finding ways to get $$ because SL is not profitable anymore?

[Ted McGregor]

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Charli Infinity wrote:

Will it?

or when do you think Second Life will "end" maybe because Linden Lab ends it or no one logs in anymore

Been thinking about this :matte-motes-delicious:

What do you think? When and why?

Discuss

---

 

 

 

 

Possibly.   Maybe you will be the last resident left turning off the lights at the end the next decade of SL, who knows ?

 In the meantime ... Perhaps it's community can take it to a level Black Mesa has 10 years after Half-Life ... Perhaps not. :robotindifferent:

[Conifer Dada]

I think Second Life, or perhaps its successor, will still be around in 10 years time.   Possibly if computer and internet developments allow LL to offer big improvements to graphics, preformance and features, they might be bundled together as a big re-launch of the game, maybe with a new name.  Over the years we've heard of several virtual worlds being developed that would be better than SL, but none have turned out to be so, and some never appeared at all.  But that doesn't mean that a fully formed mind-blowing competitor to SL won't be sprung on the unsuspecting public, having been developed in secret.

If the SL economy were to slump disastrously, there would presumably be a point where LL might find it's not worth continuing.

Another thing that could affect SL badly would be legislation - particularly if it's in USA, regarding what you can and can't do on the internet.

 

[Melita Magic]

Yeah like Czari mentioned I have a bit of deja vu with this thread. I am more curious why people keep asking if LL is going to go under. Are you investing in it?

My answer is and likely will always be: no, I think it is here to stay. What's more I am glad of that.

[Orca Flotta]

I see a SL-like virtual world will still be around in 10 years. At least one, probably even more. It is the future, that much is clear. But let's have a look at the now-state, and what the users expect from a VW and what they are willing to give and invest into it. And there I see a scissor that opens every day a bit more.

Look at the standard SL user: they are young, upwardly mobile and broke. So they are trying to access SL with 300 $ laptops, and they are always in a hurry and can't be bothered to deal with the demands of our brave new world. Of course they get frustrated ... and leave.

Look at the hi-end power users: they are settled and connecting to SL with powerful desktop machines and making the best of it. They are the driving force behind the innovation and evolution of SL. And they have the time to really learn and get into the world.

So what we see is a growing demand in 2 diametrical different directions: SL must be easier, cheaper and less demanding for a part of its population. And it just must become technological more advanced for the others. If LL manages to do the split and satisfy everybody they will have a great future.

 

[Penny Patton]

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Peggy Paperdoll wrote:

That is the product of what SL is.  User created content and real time ever changing 3D graphics is part of what makes SL unique......and, at least, a very large part of the attraction.  It's an issue that LL is slowly gaining on........competition will speed the fix up considerably.  I'm sure the problem can be fixed......when someone figures it out, be it LL or some competitor, the technology will really take off.

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I agree that it will take external influence, a competitor that actually has what it takes to steal LL's lunch money, to really put the pressure on LL to improve. How well LL is able to cope with that pressure will be the deciding factor in whether or not SL is still around after such competition arrives.

A part of the problem, however, is that it's not merely complacency which keeps LL from improving SL. They spend an absurd amount of time and money in some astoundingly misguided attempts to improve SL. Their biggest obstacle to remaining relevant is that they entirely lack management with the skills and expertise to guide SL's development.

 If LL cannot acquire these skill sets and utilize them to their fullest when actual competition does manifest, I don't see them being able to improve enough to retain their userbase.

If they can acquire these skills, then they are in a strong position to remain the standard in virtual worlds simply by beying the oldest and having the large, invested userbase and a plethora of existing content that comes with age.

[Peggy Paperdoll]

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If LL cannot acquire these skill sets and utilize them to their fullest when actual competition does manifest, I don't see them being able to improve enough to retain their userbase.

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I can't argue much against your point about long range management skill sets.  I do happen to think that that skill exists. But I also think it's very much under utilized (probably because of the lack of urgency.......they are, after all, the only dog in the yard at the moment).  There's also a very real problem of cost.  To really fix SL in a meaningful, more complete way they are going to have to do some major redesigning (possibly completely replacing the platform).  That's a lot of money.  I'm very sure LL has the experience and skill to accomplish such a task but without an urgent need patching what they have is tremendously less expensive.  Any competition that jumps into the game is going to have gain the 10 years of experience that LL already has..........that means LL can do it cheaper and much more quickly than anyone else.  Any competitor is going to have obtain financing (a lot of it) and investors are going to look at the competitor's experience, then at LL's experience and have to weigh the benefits of going with a lessor experienced company or an experienced company.........LL will have an easier time getting investments.

However, I'm banking on the fact that LL still has the fire it had 10 years ago when Philip Linden put his crazy idea into motion.  If they don't then LL will crumble.  And when LL crumbles SL goes away.........even if someone buys SL it's gone and the competitor will take it's place.

[Penny Patton]

When I say they lack certain skills I'm talking about things like experience in art and design as it applies to virtual worlds. SL's management structure lacks any expertise in this area and it shows. Nearly all of SL's graphics and performance issues are the result. ALL of SL's content creation tools are broken in some way, from the appearance editor to rigged mesh. Even the cost of land is skewed higher because of it and not in a way that LL can profit from.

They also need people who understand community building techniques (better search, profile and community tools). conveyance (using tutorials and in-world environments to impart information to the user in an intuitive and organic way),  and marketing (SL's website imagery has improved remarkably in the past year or two, but overall their marketing presentation does them no favours when it comes to trying to draw in new users).

SL is riddled with issues that LL will not fix not because they can't, not because they don't want to spend the time and money on them, but because they do not understand the problem in the first place.

 

 You're quite right that as far as the technical aspects of running a virtual world fo, LL has unrivalled experience. If they can pair their engineers up with guidance from people with other skill sets, they'll be a force to be reckoned with.

 However, they cannot continue to let programmers alone decide whether or not things like rigged mesh get fixed or how LI costs should be calculated. THAT is where up and coming competition would currently be able to completely destroy SL.

[Suspiria Finucane]

Interestingly enough, I've been hearing the SL death hammer striking for almost 6 1/2 years now.  It must be falling on deaf ears because it is still here. I've been called a LL fangirl for years but you know what, just about everything I've said has come to pass. Instead of doom and gloom for SL, people should be thankful it is here. Imagine the alternatives...

 

Will SL be here in 10 years....let's hope so :matte-motes-wink:

[Conifer Dada]

Although I've been around long enough to take SL for granted, I'm still struck from time to time how wonderful it is.  Over the years it has improved, although there are sometimes setbacks.

Being a user created virtual world, it has to be a compromise, which means that for many potential users, it's 'not quite good enough'  For example, if you want to make a visualisation on a proposed real-life park, SL graphics isn't quite good enough to make pictures of it for a public display.  If you want to make a graphic novel, it's not quite good enough to make all the scenes you need - for instance a large group of people or a street with lots of traffic.  If LL can crack problems like these I think SL will attract a whole lot of new users for whom SL is a tool for creating images or videos.

Also an enhanced in-world building that includes creating meshes and textures would be great - or next best, user-freindly external programmes tailored to SL for doing those jobs.