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Second Life in 2014


Porky Gorky
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Over the years, hundreds of people have come on to LL's forums and predicted the imminent demise of SL. I have always jumped on the back of these doomsayers and given them a hard time and defended SL's future. Although I have a harder time defending this position nowadays.

I was thinking earlier today (whilst spending an hour stuck on the tube going nowhere - grrr), how remarkable it is that SL has survived this long. If someone had come up to me the day Mark Kingdon left and said they would give me 20 to 1 odds that SL would still be here in 2013, I would have slapped them hard and sent them off to the funny farm quick as a whistle without placing the bet.

Yet here we are, nearly 2013 and against all odds we all still have an active and vibrant virtual world to play in with a stable and lucrative virtual economy as it's backdown. 

There are still lots of issues that need to be dealt with, but there has always been lots of issues that need to be dealt with.

There are still important questions that need answering such as; is SL still self sufficient? Exactly what percentage of LL's  resources are being utilised to support SL? What are LL's plans for the future of SL? 

But for now SL will trundle along into next year leaving these questions unanswered. 

So I guess the point of this post is simply that I find it remarkable that SL is still here and I wonder if we will still be here in 2014.

So what do you think will happen to SL in 2013?

Do you think we can make it to 2014?

 

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I believe virtual worlds are here for a good long time. They may not look exactly the same down the road but then SL is not the same as when it started. But I see several things that could spell the end to SL, other worlds getting a lot better, costing less, using hyper-grid, and luring people away from SL. Another sure fire end could be the good old American Corporate Greed, this is what I would place my bets on. But one thing I do not think you will see is no one interested in virtual worlds, there are a lot of them out there and a well run grid could last far into the future. I know I'm not going away.

The problem with business today is no one is interested in making a living, they are only interested in making a killing.

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I can't imagine why you would have thought that Kingdon's departure heralded the demise of SL, or that SL is still here "against all odds". I would have put a lot of money on that bet and I would have seen it as money in the bank - if the person had the means to pay up, that is.

Yes, SL will 'survive' until 2014.

I predict that I will have gone before then, or at least my store will have gone by then. I may just hang around from time to time.

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Phil Deakins wrote:

I can't imagine why you would have thought that Kingdon's departure heralded the demise of SL, or that SL is still here "
against all odds
". I would have put a lot of money on that bet and I would have seen it as money in the bank - if the person had the means to pay up, that is.

 

I didn't say Mark Kingdon's departure heralded the demise of SL. I was referring to that specific point in time. The days surrounding his departure.

At that point in time the company had lost their focus for SL. They tried marketing it to big business and failed alienating a good % of their core userbase in the process. They had created a viewer that was widely criticized and boycotted by the majority of the userbase and most importantly LL fired 30% of their staff including the CEO.

The general reaction of the userbase at this time was that SL was in trouble. Most expected SL to continue to decline from that point on until it eventually died. That is indeed what is happening now. At that point I thought SL had a year of sustainability left, maybe 2 years tops. I certainly did not think it would make it to 2013 which is why I would not have taken the bet. 

 

 

 

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Phil Deakins wrote:

I'd still have taken the bet
:)

I know that SL has been on the decline for a few years now, but it's been a very slow decline so I never had the sense of it's impending demise that you had.

If anything my sense of impending demise has never been stronger than in this past year. This is mainly down to 2 factors

1. The number of privately owned regions that have been lost this year

2 The fact that Linden Lab are clearly devoting allot less resources to supporting SL. From what I have read on these forums and external blogs and forums, abuse reports and support tickets are being regularly ignored, extortionists are being allowed to operate on the grid unchallenged and I know from personal experience that the DMCA process is now failing on a regular basis, The Lindens have withdrawn themselves and firmly shut us out, Office hour and town halls are gone, Nearly all Linden run user groups are gone. Financial reporting has gone. Blog posting has all but gone. These are all bad signs and signify to me (a loyal paying customer for 8.5 yrs) that the company no longer cares.

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My view is that, although LL is focussing on other things, SL generates so much money for the company that they wouldn't be stupid enough to close it down until it is necessary. It's pretty much like my store. I lost interest years ago and decided to close it but not until it isn't producing worthwhile RL money for me. Also, they are still adding/developing/tweaking stuff for SL, so they aren't just letting it fade away like my store. They actually need SL to finance other things.

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Phil Deakins wrote:

My view is that, although LL is focussing on other things, SL generates so much money for the company that they wouldn't be stupid enough to close it down until it is necessary. It's pretty much like my store. I lost interest years ago and decided to close it but not until it isn't producing worthwhile RL money for me. Also, they are still adding/developing/tweaking stuff for SL, so they aren't just letting it fade away like my store. They actually need SL to finance other things.

I guess this is the key question. When will it be necessary to shut down SL? What's the tipping point that prompts the investors to pull the plug? The number of regions, active users and new sign-ups have all fallen at a greater rate in 2012 compared to any other year in SL's history. Whatever development LL are working on for the platform is certainly not doing anything to stop the current downward trend

In the grand scheme of things the decline is still slow. But a loss of 2700+ regions in the past year is no insignificant thing. It will seriously impact LL's bottom line. All the while as LL declines, allot of the open sim grids have shown increased growth in 2012.

If the speed of the decline continues to increase, as it has done in 2012, then it will be interesting to see if LL does anything proactive to stop it, such as restructuring tier pricing in 2013, or are they just going to sit back and watch SL fade away?

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Hoshi Kenin wrote:

It has taken you all of 8 and a half years to come to the conclusion LL does not hold the customer in high regard??

The signs were there, crystal clear, long before these last 12 months, imo.

Not holding a customer in high regard is one thing, compleltely ignoring them is something else. Up until recently LL has found a balance about halfway in between the two imo. However 2012 has seen them greatly reduce their interaction with the customer base, more so than we have ever seen before.

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When Second Life closes down [nothing lasts forever]  I hope means are put in place so that we can take our inventories of stuff we've made and bought over the years to other grids. I know it's unlikely to happen but it would save on all the bother of starting over from scratch. That said I see no reason why Second Life won't be around in 2014 or the near-term future. After all, Active Worlds is still around.

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Porky Gorky wrote:


Phil Deakins wrote:

I'd still have taken the bet
:)

I know that SL has been on the decline for a few years now, but it's been a very slow decline so I never had the sense of it's impending demise that you had.

If anything my sense of impending demise has never been stronger than in this past year. This is mainly down to 2 factors

1. The number of privately owned regions that have been lost this year

2 The fact that Linden Lab are clearly devoting allot less resources to supporting SL. From what I have read on these forums and external blogs and forums, abuse reports and support tickets are being regularly ignored, extortionists are being allowed to operate on the grid unchallenged and I know from personal experience that the DMCA process is now failing on a regular basis, The Lindens have withdrawn themselves and firmly shut us out, Office hour and town halls are gone, Nearly all Linden run user groups are gone. Financial reporting has gone. Blog posting has all but gone. These are all bad signs and signify to me (a loyal paying customer for 8.5 yrs) that the company no longer cares.

Ok, color me confused...on November 06, 2012 you called me out on the Merchant Forums for being a member of the "doom and gloom" crowd due to my posting re: an interview Rod did with a blog that suggests his attention and efforts are primarily on creating new games.  I responded:

"I've never been part of the doom and gloom group, but when I read an interview with the CEO of LL who (1) laughed and seemed surprised SL was still around when approached with the offer of becoming CEO and (2) pretty much states that when he took a look at SL and saw  "it was a company that was ready made to do a whole bunch of other products, which I wanted to do,” it's not in the realm of tinfoil hats that SL may be ditched at worst, nor the reason SL issues are being put on the backburner at best."

You then posted some positive comments re: SL Rod had made on another blog and then said:

Porkey Gorky posted:

"The only people that really know if SL is in serious trouble or close to going under are the people with access to all the facts i.e. the management of the company. Anyone else who chooses to make predictions without knowing all the facts is destined to get it wrong, as many have done so before you. Sure you may be the lucky one that predicts correctly this time, but chances are you won't, chances are you will just help add fuel to the negativity that surrounds SL and help perpetuate the idea that the platform is in dire straits or on the verge of closing. Such rumours and speculation does nothing to improve customer retention or ease the concerns of those residents looking to invest money into the world be it through membership, tier/land purchase or buying content. "

(Emphasis by Porky)

(Entire posts can be found here.)

Now you're saying you would have placed a bet two years ago SL wouldn't still be here and began a post asking for opinions.  So, what was with the "doom and gloom" response to me a month ago? (Don't mean to be argumentative - just surprised to see this post which is almost the polar opposite of what you said a month ago.)

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I've been in SL for over 6 years now. Up until this point SL and myself have survived multiple "the end of SL" scenarios and predictions. Unless something dramatic happens I think this trend will continue.

 

On a slightly related topic, I have been on Earth for over 55 years now. The Earth and myself have survived multiple "end of the world" scenarios and predictions. Assuming that I make it past Dec. 21st, I'm starting to think that I have survived "the end of the world" enough times now that I just might be immortal. While this would be encouraging, I think I had better start taking better care of myself.

 

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Tex Nasworthy wrote:

On a slightly related topic, I have been on Earth for over 55 years now. The Earth and myself have survived multiple "end of the world" scenarios and predictions. Assuming that I make it past Dec. 21st, I'm starting to think that I have survived "the end of the world" enough times now that I just might be immortal.

 

 

Wow, I think you might be onto something there! I kinda like that idea. The Immortal Dillon. Has a nice ring to it.:smileyvery-happy:

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Dillon Levenque wrote:

 

Tex Nasworthy wrote:

On a slightly related topic, I have been on Earth for over 55 years now. The Earth and myself have survived multiple "end of the world" scenarios and predictions. Assuming that I make it past Dec. 21st, I'm starting to think that I have survived "the end of the world" enough times now that I just might be immortal.

 

 

Wow, I think you might be onto something there! I kinda like that idea.
The Immortal Dillon
. Has a nice ring to it.:smileyvery-happy:

Grabs a crowbar and a pair of nylons and starts prying on that "t".

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Madelaine McMasters wrote:


Dillon Levenque wrote:

 

Wow, I think you might be onto something there! I kinda like that idea.
The Immortal Dillon
. Has a nice ring to it.:smileyvery-happy:

Grabs a crowbar and a pair of nylons and starts prying on that "t".

 

;-). Crowbar probably a bit of overkill there. Just as well, really. That 'immortal' tag didn't work out too well for those Hadleyburg folks, as I recall.

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